Research Document 2019/024
Assessing the status of the cod (Gadus morhua) stock in NAFO Subdivision 3Ps in 2017
By Ings, D.W., Rideout, R.M., Wheeland, L., Healey, B.P., Morgan, M.J., Regular, P., and J. Vigneau
Abstract
The status of the cod stock in the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Subdivision 3Ps was assessed during a Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Regional Peer Review Process meeting held October 17-18, 2017.
Total landings for the 2016-17 management year (April 1-March 31) were 6,282 t or just 48% of the Total Allowable Catch (TAC). This marks the seventh consecutive season that the TAC has not been fully taken.
Survey abundance and biomass estimates from the DFO research vessel (RV) spring survey were below average during 2016 and 2017. Sentinel gillnet catch rates have been very low and stable since 1999. Sentinel linetrawl catch rates have been below average for the past seven years and the 2016 catch rate was among the lowest in the time series.
Estimates of Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) derived from a survey-based (SURBA) cohort model increased considerably over 2009-12 but have since declined. The stock is currently estimated to be in the Cautious Zone (54% above Blim) as defined by the DFO Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework. The probability that the stock is in the critical zone is 0.03. SSB decreased from 2012, but showed an increase in 2017. However, SSB is concentrated (75% of SSB) in ages 5 and 6, with few older (ages 7+) fish in the population. Estimated total mortality for fish in the age range of 5-10 years is currently very high (three year average Z = 0.70), which is a large concern especially considering that reported landings have been only about half of the TACs over this time period.
Short-term projections of the stock were performed to 2020 assuming mortality rates will be within +/- 20% of current values (2014 to 2016 average). Projected SSB shows a continuous decline to 2020 in most cases, with the decrease ranging from 23 to 58% (2017-20). The risk of being below Blim by 2019 ranges from 0.09 and 0.73, and by 2020 from 0.25 to 0.94.
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