Research Document 2019/064

Recovery Potential Modelling of River Darter (Percina shumardi) in Canada

By van der Lee, A.S., and Koops, M.A.

Abstract

The Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) has assessed the River Darter (Percina shumardi) as Endangered within the Great Lakes – Upper St. Lawrence Biogeographic Zone (DU3) in Canada. Here we present population modelling to assess the impacts of harm, determine population-based recovery targets, and conduct long-term projections of population recovery in support of a recovery potential assessment (RPA). Limited species-specific data were available for Canadian populations of River Darter and there was much uncertainty in life-history characteristics and vital rate values. Our analysis demonstrated that River Darter population growth was most sensitive to perturbations to young-of-the-year (YOY) survival rate and reproduction. Harm to these aspects of River Darter life-history should be avoided. The risks associated with different levels of stage-specific anthropogenic harm were investigated. Population viability analysis was used to identify potential recovery targets. Demographic sustainability, (i.e., a self-sustaining population over the long term) can be achieved with population sizes of 27,000 to 31,000 adults based on conservative simulation criteria. A population of this size required between 10.6 and 12.1 ha of suitable habitat (assuming densities of 0.25 fish/m²). Population projections predicted that recovery could occur in 33–35 years with an initial density of 10% of the abundance targets.

Research Document 2019/064 (PDF, 1,979 KB)

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