Research Document 2019/069
Assessing the status of the cod (Gadus morhua) stock in NAFO Subdivision 3Ps in 2018
By Ings, D.W., Rideout, R.M., Rogers, R., Healey, B.P., Morgan, M.J., Robertson, G.J. and Vigneau, J.
Abstract
The status of the cod stock in the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Subdivision 3Ps was assessed during a Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Regional Peer Review Process meeting held October 16-17, 2018.
Total landings for the 2017-18 management year (April 1-March 31) were 5,031 t or 77% of the Total Allowable Catch (TAC). This marks the eighth consecutive season that the entire TAC has not been taken.
Survey abundance and biomass estimates from the DFO research vessel (RV) spring survey were below average during 2016 to 2018. Sentinel gillnet catch rates have been very low and stable since 1999. Sentinel linetrawl catch rates have been below average for the past eight years and the 2017 catch rate was among the lowest in the time series.
Spawning stock biomass (SSB) has increased since 2015. In 2018, 71% of the SSB is comprised of ages 6 and 7. Recruitment has generally been at or above the time-series average since 2005, with a particularly strong cohort produced in 2011. Estimated total mortality remains high. Over 2015-17, total mortality averaged 0.61 (54% survival per year); however, the relative contributions of natural and fishing mortality to total mortality are unknown.
Projection of the stock to 2021 was conducted assuming mortality rates will be within +/- 20% of current values (2015 to 2017 average). All projections show SSB in 2021 to be lower than SSB in 2018. Where total mortality is assumed to remain at or above current levels, projections indicate that SSB in 2020 and 2021 to be at or below Blim.
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