Research Document 2019/075

The status of the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (3Pn, 4RS) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stock in 2018

By Brassard, C., Lussier, J-F., Benoît, H., Way, M. and Collier, F.

Abstract

Assessment of the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stock of the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (3Pn, 4RS) is based on data from commercial fisheries, a tagging program, an abundance index calculated from the Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) research survey, abundance indices from the fixed gear sentinel fisheries program (longlines and gillnets), an abundance index from the mobile gear sentinel fisheries program and biological data. This document describes the data and methods used to assess a number of indicators including abundance, biomass, spawning biomass, natural mortality, exploitation rate and recruitment. It also includes a prediction of the stock trend until 2021.

Beginning in 2017–2018, the total allowable catch increased from 1,500 t to 3,185 t, which corresponds to an available fishing allocation of 2,769 t. Preliminary landings totalled 2,670 t in 2017–2018 and 2,515 t in 2018–2019. Catches in the recreational fishery are unknown.

In 2017 and 2018, indicators from the DFO research survey and the sentinel fisheries showed a decline in abundance ranging from 21% to 60% relative to 2016.

The virtual population analysis model indicates that the spawning stock biomass (SSB) has declined in the past two years, with a decrease of 46% in 2018 relative to 2016 reaching the lowest values in the last 20 years. This decrease in the spawning biomass is believed to be linked to high mortality, caused among other things by unaccounted fishing mortality and predation by grey seals and harp seals; however, the level of mortality is unknown.

The northern Gulf of St. Lawrence cod stock remains in the critical zone, well below the limit reference point (LRP). The estimated spawning biomass is in the critical zone, at 10% of the 2019 LRP. No significant signs of recruitment permitting short term recovery have been detected. According to the precautionary approach, harvests from all sources should be as low as possible to promote the recovery of this stock. 

Research Document 2019/075 (PDF, 3,713 KB)