Research Document 2020/042

Preliminary assessment of the suitability of Canadian Great Lakes tributaries for Asian carp spawning

By Mandrak, N.E., Grafe, S., Lewin, A., Hunter, P., and Heer, T.

Abstract

Grass Carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella), Bighead Carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis), Silver Carp (H. molitrix), and Black Carp (Mylopharyngodon piceus), collectively known as Asian carps, are invasive species that have become established in the Mississippi River basin of North America and have had significant ecological and socio-economic impacts on its ecosystem. Previous risk assessments identified broad, potential risks to Canada and the United States, including the Great Lakes. These risk assessments included assessing the likelihood of establishment based on the availability of spawning and nursery habitats. Kocovsky et al. (2012) used more detailed data on thermal and hydrologic conditions to predict the suitability of eight tributaries in the western basin of Lake Erie for Asian carp spawning. The objective of this study is to refine the predictions of suitable spawning tributaries in the Canadian Great Lakes basin (bound downstream in the St. Lawrence River at 45°N) based on: unimpounded tributary length and a predictive decision-tree based on the reproductive biology of Asian carps and methods of Kocovsky et al. (2012).

Forty-three tributaries in the Canadian Great Lakes basin were identified as unimpounded from their mouth at the Great Lakes to at least 100 km upstream. Sixteen of these tributaries were in the Lake Superior basin, 14 in the Huron basin, five in the Erie basin, and eight in the Ontario basin. Based on the methods of Kocovsky et al. (2012), spawning conditions were determined to be suitable or highly suitable in 12 of 14 Erie tributaries with sufficient gauging data, 21 of 29 Huron tributaries, 18 of 40 Ontario tributaries, all four St. Lawrence tributaries in Ontario, and six of 12 Superior tributaries.

Research Document 2020/042 (PDF, 12,895 KB)

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