Science Advisory Report  2008/003

Assessment of cod stock in the northern gulf of St. Lawrence (3Pn, 4RS) in 2007

Summary

• The 2007 total admissible catches (TAC) were established at 7,000 tons. Preliminary landings available in January 2008 totalled 6,406 tons.
• Even though there was a recreational fishery in 2007, there is no available data.
• Sentinel fishery performance (longline and gillnet) peaked in 2006. However, the four abundance indices for this stock dropped from 2006 to 2007.
• Performance as well as geographic range observed by the commercial and sentinel fisheries suggest to fishermen that abundance and biomass are much more significant than what was estimated by this assessment.
• The results from the two sequential population analyses indicate that spawner abundance and biomass levels remained low and have not increased since 1997. The results from the sequential population analysis formulation, which estimated natural mortality (M), indicated that the spawning stock biomass would be 26,000 tons in 2008 compared to 37,000 tons for the formulation where M was set.
• A 7,000 ton fishery in 2008 would not cause any increase in spawning stock biomass based on the formulation accepted last year. According to the other model which estimates natural mortality, there would be no spawning stock biomass increase if catches exceed 5,000 tons in 2008. Without the fishery, the spawning stock biomass would increase by 22 or 20% respectively. Exploitation rates reached 21 to 28% in 2007 based on the model used; this will not enable the stock to recover.
• Estimates indicate that the spawning stock biomass is under the conservation limit.
• Based on the stock’s spawning capacity, a reconstruction strategy would require a drop in catch levels for a recovery within the scale of the next decade.

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