Science Advisory Report  2008/004

Assessment of Cod in the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence

Summary

• In 2007-2008, the TAC was 2,000 t. As of December 31, 2007, 1,442 t had been landed.
• All abundance indices indicate that this stock is at, or near a record-low level and is declining.
• A telephone opinion survey of fishers on the status of the stock indicates that they consider the state of the resource to be similar to that of 2006.
• Spawning stock biomass is at the lowest level observed in the last 59 years. The current estimate of spawning stock biomass at the beginning of 2008 is 36,000 t.
• Spawning stock biomass has been estimated to be well below the limit reference point for this stock (80,000 t) since 2004. Below the limit reference point, a stock is considered to have suffered serious harm because the probability of poor recruitment is high.
• Recruitment of year-classes of the late 1980s and 1990s has been significantly below the long-term average. The 2003 and 2005 year-classes are estimated to be the lowest in the time series and less than half the strength of any other recent year-class.
• Natural mortality in recent years is high (0.5 or higher) and seems to be increasing. Predation by seals is considered to be a significant component of natural mortality. The exploitation rate in 2007 is estimated at 5% (fishing mortality of 0.07), a fraction of natural mortality.
• Given the high natural mortality and low recruitment in recent years, the spawning stock biomass is certain to decline. Even with no catch in 2008, it is almost certain to decline by at least 10%, and there is a 53% probability of a decline of 15% or more.
• A study shows that, under current productivity conditions, the stock is headed for extinction. Unless productivity increases, spawning stock biomass will fall to close to 0 (<1,000 t) in 20 years with annual catches of 2,000 t and in 40 years with no commercial catch.
• Given the current stock status, removals in 2008 should be set at the lowest possible level. Catches of 300 t are considered to be a low attainable catch level.

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