Science Advisory Report 2008/032
2007 Marine Survival Forecast of Southern British Columbia coho
Summary
- 2006 marine survival and abundance observations were generally lower than forecast, and in some cases much lower than forecast. Since the early 1970s the marine survivals have been decreasing from the 10% to 20% range down to less than 2%.
- Forecast models predict extremely low marine survivals and abundances for 2007, similar to the last two years. Interior Fraser, Georgia Basin East and Georgia Basin West Management Units in particular are coho stocks of concern. Although the biological based models are more optimistic than the time series models, the abundance would still be considered low.
- The distributional forecast is for a weaker outside distribution than 2005 and 2006, and similar to the long term average.
- Monitoring programs for coded-wire tagged, adipose fin clipped coho must be maintained or strengthened to continue to monitor southern British Columbia coho populations.
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