Science Advisory Report 2008/053
2008 Marine Survival Forecast of Southern British Columbia Coho
Summary
- 2007 marine survival and abundance observations were higher than 2006 with the exception of Area 13 Index streams. Also, they were generally higher than forecast, except for west coast Vancouver Island, Area 12 and the Strait of Georgia Hatchery CPUE model.
- All of the biological based model forecasts were lower than the observed values in 2007 and 7 of 8 of the time series based model forecasts were higher than the observed values.
- Marine survivals have decreased from the 10% to 20% range in the early 1970s to less than 2%.
- Forecast models predict extremely low marine survivals and abundances for 2008, similar to the last three years. Interior Fraser, Georgia Basin East and Georgia Basin West Management Units in particular are coho stocks of concern.
- The distributional forecast is for a stronger outside distribution than the long term average.
- Monitoring programs for coded-wire tagged, adipose fin clipped coho must be maintained or strengthened to continue to monitor southern British Columbia coho populations.
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