Science Advisory Report  2009/007

Assessment of Cod in the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence

Summary

• In 2008-2009, the total allowable catch (TAC) was 2,000 t. Landings in 2008 were 1,648 t, 121 t landed from 4Vn in January – April and 1527 t in the 2008-2009 fishing season up to December 31.
• In a telephone opinion survey of fishers on the status of the stock, 43% considered abundance in 2008 to be the same as in 2007, 33% considered it to be higher, and 24% considered it to be lower.
• The 2005-2008 abundance indices from the annual DFO research vessel survey are at the lowest levels observed in the 1971-2008 time series.
• Mean catch rates in the longline sentinel survey declined each year after 2004 and since 2005 have been at the lowest levels observed in the 1995-2008 time series.
• The abundance index from the sentinel trawl survey declined in 2005 and has remained below the 2003-2004 level since then.
• Year-classes produced since the late 1980s have been much weaker than those produced from the mid 1970s to the mid 1980s. The most recent year-classes (2003-2006) are estimated to be the lowest in the time series.
• Natural mortality in recent years is estimated to be high (about 0.6) and increasing. Predation by seals is considered to be a significant component of natural mortality. At such rates of natural mortality, sustainable exploitation rates must be very low. Stock growth is not likely unless productivity increases well above levels observed in the past decade.
• The exploitation rate in 2008 is estimated at 6% (fishing mortality of 0.08), a small fraction of natural mortality, but still high and unsustainable given current stock productivity.
• A conservation limit reference point (LRP) has been established for this stock, based on the spawning stock biomass (SSB) below which the probability of poor recruitment is high. The LRP is estimated to be 80,000 t.
• SSB is at the lowest level observed in the last 60 years. The estimate of SSB at the beginning of 2009 is 28,000 t, which is well below the LRP. SSB has been below the LRP since 2002.
• SSB is well below the LRP. The application of the precautionary approach would require catches in 2009 to be at the lowest possible level. This would include no directed fishing and measures to reduce cod by-catch in other fisheries. Catches not exceeding 300 t are considered to be a low attainable catch level.
• Given the high natural mortality and low recruitment in recent years, SSB is expected to decline in 2009 even with no catch, and there is a high probability (about 95%) of a decline of 5% or more. The probability of a decline of 10% or more is 54%.

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