Science Advisory Report 2009/063

Stock Assessment of Subdivision 3Ps cod

Summary

• Information available to evaluate stock status consisted of commercial landings (1959 to 25 Sept 2009) and log-book data (1997-2008) in conjunction with information from Canadian research vessel (RV) trawl surveys (1972-2009), industry trawl surveys (1997-2005, 2007), sentinel surveys (1995-2009), and  telephone surveys of inshore fish harvesters from Canada and France (St. Pierre et Miquelon). Exploitation (harvest) rates were estimated from tagging experiments.
• Catch and commercial logbook data for the entire 2009/10 management year were not available to the current assessment as the 2009/10 fishery is ongoing. Tag return and sentinel survey data are also incomplete for 2009 and will be considered during the next assessment.
• The total allowable catch (TAC) for the 2009/10 management year is 11, 500 t.
• It was concluded from tagging data and ancillary information that there is a complex of stock components in 3Ps. The impacts of fishing at specific TAC levels on all stock components could not be quantified. However, the DFO RV survey covers most of the stock, and survey trends broadly reflect stock trends.
• Exploitation rates for most inshore components in 2008 were approximately 10% which seems sustainable. The status of inshore components is uncertain, however catch rates from sentinel surveys and logbooks for vessels <35’ suggest stability.
• Indices of total biomass and spawning stock biomass (SSB) from DFO RV surveys declined over 2004–08, but increased in 2009 and are near the 1998-2009 average.
• The 2006 cohort is estimated to be relatively strong, and is beginning to recruit to the fishery. Year-classes currently supporting the fishery are relatively weak in comparison to the strong 1997 and 1998 cohorts.
• Based upon the 2008/09 fishing season, the perspective of the fishing industry is that cod are abundant and there appears to be a good mixture of year-classes; fishers also see evidence of the reasonably strong 2006 year-class.
• Estimates of total mortality (ages 4-11) from a cohort model over 2004-08 were approximately 0.55 (42% mortality). This high level of mortality is a concern. Total mortality rates reflect mortality due to all causes, including fishing.
• The basis for a limit reference point for this stock is B_Recovery, defined as the lowest observed SSB from which there has been a sustained recovery. The 1994 value of SSB has been identified as the limit reference level for this stock.
• Estimated survey SSB from a cohort model decreased in recent years and in 2009 was above the limit reference point (LRP). However, the probability that the SSB in 2009 was below the LRP varies from 20% to 40% depending on catchability assumptions.

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