Science Advisory Report  2010/067

Stock Assessment of Subdivision 3Ps cod, October 2010

Summary

• Information available to evaluate stock status consisted of commercial landings (1959 to 15 Oct 2010) and log-book data (1997-2009) in conjunction with information from Canadian research vessel (RV) trawl surveys (1972-2010), industry trawl surveys (1997-2005, 2007), sentinel surveys (1995-2010), and  a  telephone survey of Canadian fish harvesters pertaining to the 2009/10 fishery. Exploitation (harvest) rates were estimated from tagging experiments in Placentia Bay.
• Catch and commercial logbook data for the entire 2010/11 management year were not available to the current assessment as the 2010/11 fishery is ongoing. Tag return and sentinel survey data are also incomplete for 2010 and will be considered during the next assessment.
• The total allowable catch (TAC) for the 2010/11 management year is 11, 500 t.
• Tagging data and ancillary information indicated that there is a complex of stock components in 3Ps. However, the DFO RV survey covers most of the stock, and survey trends broadly reflect stock trends.
• The basis for a limit reference point (LRP) for this stock is BRecovery, defined as the lowest observed SSB from which there has been a sustained recovery. The 1994 value of SSB has been identified as the limit reference level for this stock.
• Estimates of total mortality (ages 4-11) from a cohort model over 2005-09 were approximately 0.60 (45% mortality).  This high level of mortality is a concern. Total mortality rates reflect mortality due to all causes, including fishing.
• In this assessment, SSB estimated from a survey based cohort model (SURBA) decreased in recent years and in 2008 and 2009 there was a probability of 0.59 and 0.75, respectively, that SSB was below the LRP. The SSB in 2010 is estimated to be above the LRP, although the probability of being below the LRP is 0.37.
• A one year projection to 2011 using the cohort model indicated that survey SSB will increase if total mortality rates are similar to current values (i.e. within ±20%), and that the probability of being below the LRP in 2011 is low (0.04 to 0.17).
• The 2006 cohort is estimated to be relatively strong and is expected to recruit to the 2011 fishery. The 2007 and 2008 cohorts are estimated to be near the 1994-2008 average. Year-classes currently supporting the fishery are relatively weak in comparison to the strong 1997 and 1998 cohorts.
• The status of inshore components is uncertain, however catch rates from sentinel surveys and logbooks for vessels <35’ suggest stability.
• Exploitation rates for cod tagged in Placentia Bay during 2008 and 2009 ranged from 10-14% and were lower than those observed in 1999-2005 (23-35%).
• The impacts of fishing at specific TAC levels on all stock components could not be quantified.
• Reported landings during the 2009/10 season totaled 77% of the TAC. This is atypical.
• Industry participants noted reduced catches during the 2009/10 season. Primary reasons were reduced effort and market conditions. Harvesters continue to see evidence of a strong 2006 year-class.

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