Science Advisory Report  2011/015

Optimal Production of Chinook Salmon from the Taku River through the 2001 Year Class

Summary

• For the purpose of this report, the Taku River Chinook stock was considered a single aggregate population.However, under the Wild Salmon Policy, three Conservation Units have been proposed, consisting of early, middle and late run stocks.  Management of Taku River Chinook is conducted bilaterally through the Pacific Salmon Treaty (PST).
• The Salmon Standing Committee of the Centre for Science Advice Pacific (CSAP) was presented with the results of an updated analysis conducted by the Alaskan Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G) regarding the optimal escapement goal for Taku River Chinook.
• Escapement analysis incorporated stock assessment data from brood years 1973 to 2001, including aerial counts and mark-recapture studies. Data and methods in the current analysis were considered an improvement over methods employed previously.
• Spawning abundance that would produce maximum sustained yield (NMSY) was estimated at 25,075 large Chinook salmon using the traditional Ricker exponential stock-recruit model fit to the production data for the 1983–2001 year classes.
• An escapement goal range of 19,000 to 36,000 large Chinook was recommended in the reviewed report. These escapement ranges represented a 90-98% chance of achieving at least 90% of MSY from these stocks.

This Science Advisory Report has resulted from a Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat Pacific Regional Advisory Process of October 18-19, 2010 on Assessment of Escapement Goals for Alsek River Chinook and Sockeye and Taku River Chinook and Coho. Additional publications resulting from this process will be posted as they become available on the DFO Science Advisory Schedule.

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