Science Advisory Report  2012/005

Assessment of the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (3Pn,4RS) cod stock in 2011

Summary

• The 2010–2011 total allowable catch (TAC) was 4 000 t and 3 567 t were landed. The 2011–2012, TAC was 2 000 t and 1 742 t were landed (preliminary). Recreational fishery landings are unknown.
• Commercial fishery performance estimated from longline fishermen logbooks shows a decrease from 2006 to 2010, followed by a slight increase in 2011. Gillnet fishermen performance decreased from 2004 to 2009, then increased in 2010 and 2011. A similar pattern was observed from the telephone survey.
• Sentinel fishery catch rates (longline and gillnet) peaked in 2006. They both dropped until 2010 and gillnet rates increased significantly in 2011.
• Catch rates from the DFO trawl survey have been low and have shown no trend since 1994. The sentinel trawl survey has shown no trend since it began in 1995. However, the 2011 value is the highest of the series.
• The natural mortality parameter estimated by sequential population analysis (SPA) has increased over the last 15 years. Possible causes are an increase in seal predation and an increase in unaccounted fishing mortality as a result of increased discards or recreational fishing.
• The exploitation rate estimated by the SPA for 7–9-year-old cod has increased since 2004 to reach 38% in 2008. It dropped to 9% in 2011. This is confirmed by tagging analysis that shows exploitation rates of 23% in 2006 and 5% in 2011.
• The proportion of fish older than 7 years of age has dropped by half since 2008. Estimates of the population's growth potential in the absence of fishing was 17% in the early 2000s, and has declined to 3% per year since 2008.
• The spawning stock abundance for 2012 and projected to 2014 is well below the limit reference point. The stock has remained in the critical zone for the last 23 years. Catches in recent years have not allowed the stock to grow and similar catches in 2012 and 2013 will prevent any growth.
• According to the precautionary approach, landings in 2012 and 2013 should be as low as possible, the directed commercial fishery and the recreational fishery should be prohibited and by-catches should not increase.

This Science Advisory Report is from the Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat regional peer review meeting of March 8 and 9, 2012 on the Assessment of Cod Stock in the Northern Gulf of St. Lawrence. Additional publications from this process will be posted as they become available on the DFO Science Advisory Schedule.

Complete document (PDF, 220 KB)

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