Science Advisory Report 2012/033
Assessment of Area 23 Sockeye and 2010 Forecast (Barkley Sound, Alberni Inlet)
Summary
- There are three major Sockeye Salmon stocks in Pacific Fisheries Management Area 23 (PFMA) (also referred to as Barkley Sound) on the west coast of Vancouver Island, of which Great Central and Sproat Lake stocks are the largest with a combined production averaging 655,000 fish annually (1980-2009 average annual total return). Henderson Lake supports a smaller, but substantial, Sockeye run averaging 30,000 fish annually (1980-2009 average annual total return).
- For the three major stocks, enhancement tools have been used to increase production, or in the case of Henderson Lake, stabilize production.
- From 1997 to 2007, the harvest rate of Area 23 Sockeye fisheries was estimated at 29%, 33% and 13% for Great Central, Sproat and Henderson Lake Sockeye populations, respectively.
- The 2009 terminal return of Sockeye to the Somass River system was estimated to be 440,000 adults, approximately 26% greater than the management forecast of 350,000. Henderson Lake Sockeye abundance has been well below the long term average through the last decade.
- The 2010 pre-season forecast to the Somass system is 600,000 fish (90% probability range from 350,000 to 850,000 fish). The 2010 forecast is near the long term average annual total return and represents an increase of approximately 35%, over observed 2009 returns. Henderson Lake escapement in 2010 is expected to be below the target escapement of 50,000 fish.
This Science Advisory Report is from the May 26 & 27, 2010 Cultus Lake Sockeye Stock Status, 2010 Barkley Sound Sockeye Forecast, 2010 West Coast Vancouver Island Chinook Abundance Forecast, and Fraser River Sockeye Spawning Initiative Meeting. Additional publications from this process will be posted as they become available on the Fisheries and Oceans Canada Science Advisory Schedule.
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