Science Advisory Report  2013/037

Review of Harvest Control Rules for Pacific Sardine and Seasonal Biomass and Migration in British Columbia for 2013

Summary

• Sardine abundance trends from the population assessment and the west coast of Vancouver Island trawl survey both show decreases in sardine biomass from 2011 to 2012, and the last year for which the population assessment estimates a moderately strong recruitment year class is 2009.
• The estimated 2012 age 1+ California Current sardine population biomass (and 90% confidence interval) was 659,539 (442,717 -876,361) tonnes, as of July 2012 (from the U.S. led stock assessment). 
• The estimated 2012 sardine biomass (and 90% confidence interval) for the west coast of Vancouver Island core survey region is 40,377 (14,564 – 71,815) tonnes. The extrapolated 2012 biomass estimate for west coast of Vancouver Island and the mainland inlets is 8,354 tonnes.
• Estimates of the three-year average sardine migration rate into B.C. waters for 2010-2012 are 10.2% and 12.3%, which correspond to forecasts of  67,273 and 81,123 tonnes for average sardine biomass for the season starting in 2013.
• Low 2012 trawl survey sardine density results may not be representative of sardine migration into B.C. waters due to the timing of the survey and delayed favourable oceanographic conditions for sardine.
• Four alternative approaches (scenarios) for the provision of harvest advice were examined.  Three of the scenarios were found to have a scientific basis, however there was insufficient information to recommend a single scenario from among the three.  One scenario was rejected because it is not sensitive to variations in population biomass and is not precautionary.  Harvest options and considerations for each scenario are provided ranging from 7,321 tonnes to 32,977 tonnes.
• Fishery Managers are advised to consider uncertainty associated with biomass forecasting for the fishing season starting in 2013.  They are also advised to consider uncertainty associated with localized ecosystem attributes, such as incidental harvest of other species and removal of sardine from important forage habitat of sardine predators.

This Science Advisory Report is from the January 29th and 30th, 2013 Regional Peer Review meeting on the Review of the harvest control rule and harvest advice for Pacific sardine in British Columbia waters for 2013 and 2014. Additional publications from this meeting will be posted on the Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science Advisory Schedule as they become available.

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