Science Advisory Report  2013/073

Review and Assessment of the Baseline Data for the Musquash Estuary Marine Protected Area Monitoring Indicators

Summary

• The scope of this Science Advisory Report is to assess whether collected data provides an adequate baseline for on-going monitoring of the Musquash Estuary Marine Protected Area (MPA) and Administered Intertidal Area (AIA) boundaries and whether the monitoring indicators are likely to be effective in assessing ecosystem change.
• In 2010, Musquash Estuary MPA Ecosystem Monitoring Framework which proposed 15 indicators to monitor the MPA ecosystem in the context of the Conservation Objectives for the MPA was reviewed.  The 2010 framework recommended that research should be conducted to better understand the structure and function of the ecosystem to inform future monitoring and management decisions for the MPA (DFO, 2011).  Further, such research would develop baselines for the various indicators, enhance understanding of protocols required to monitor various indicators in the Musquash Estuary, as well as refine the indicators to enhance their utility for monitoring to ensure the conservation objectives are being maintained.
• Data collected from research and monitoring activities related to benthic biodiversity, physical oceanography, sediment dynamics and trace metals, fish community assemblages, bird population surveys, and human threats were reviewed. 
• The indicators and protocols used to monitor and describe the physical characteristics of the environment (e.g., freshwater input, temperature (T), salinity (S), oxygen (O), and chlorophyll (Chl)) over the past three years were appropriate.  However, additional sampling is required to produce baseline values for these indicators over a range of spatial and temporal scales.
• Data collected to date provides an adequate baseline for sedimentation rate.  Additionally, the trace metal data from both surficial samples and from core samples represent a reliable baseline dataset.  Although the coverage does not encompass the entire marine section of the MPA, all data to date are at background values.  It is recommended that a surficial grain size survey be completed in the MPA, with the top 0.5 cm of the seabed analyzed for grain size which can then be used as a baseline to assess seabed change with time.  The development of a coupled hydrodynamic – sediment transport model is also recommended to assess and model the physical drivers of the ecosystem. 
• The available data is not sufficient to determine baseline values for phytoplankton in the Musquash MPA. In addition, the significant amount of sampling required to capture trends and establish a baseline within the MPA is not considered feasible.
• The data collected and analyzed to date provide adequate baseline values for species richness and dominant taxa for the benthic macrofauna in the habitat types sampled.  Seasonal baseline values can be determined for the summer sampling period, but further sampling is required for the other sampling periods to delineate natural variation in the winter and fall seasons. 
• Results of fish sampling within the estuary provide a comprehensive representation of nearshore fish assemblages at each of the three sites sampled.  Baselines values for species assemblages can be determined from collected data; however, this has not been completed to date.  If future sampling were completed as a comparison to baseline data, additional sampling would enhance the quality of data and reduce the variability associated with species richness and with catches. 
• Key bird species that can function as indicators for monitoring the health of the Musquash MPA ecosystem should include breeding marsh birds, staging migratory shorebirds, and waterfowl.  Potential species that could be considered include: Sora Rail, American Bittern, Pied-billed Grebe, Semipalmated Sandpiper, American Black Duck, and Common Eider.
• Although total biomass was identified as an indicator for productivity, measures of biomass have not been collected for indicators within the Musquash MPA due to the intensive sampling effort requirements.  Thus, consideration needs to be given to other measures of productivity. 
• A reference point was defined as the point that once it is exceeded further management action is triggered. A strategy to determine reference points for indicators was discussed and would require sampling and analysis, as necessary, to determine natural variation around the baseline value for each indicator.  The reference point would then be an agreed upon statistical deviation from the baseline distribution (i.e., baseline value plus or minus natural variation).  As well, further discussion is needed to determine the acceptable level of sampling frequency required for each indicator to defensibly calculate a statistical deviation from the baseline distribution.
• Two complementary monitoring strategies have been identified and require additional consideration for the Musquash MPA Monitoring Program.  First is an intensive sampling period, the duration of which would be dependent on the indicator, every 5-10 years with the goal to understand ecosystem function, determine natural variability, and compare results to previous sampling periods.  The second strategy consists of conducting smaller subsets of sampling more frequently (e.g., annually) to maintain an understanding of how key components of the ecosystem are reacting to threats and pressures.

This Science Advisory Report is from the 25 to 27 June 2013 Review of the Musquash Estuary Marine Protected Area (MPA) Monitoring Data: Part 2 - Assessment. Additional publications from this process will be posted as they become available on the DFO Science Advisory Schedule at http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas-sccs/index-eng.htm.

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