Science Advisory Report  2015/029

Assessment of Newfoundland and Labrador Snow Crab

Summary

• Total landings have remained at 50,000‑53,000 t since 2007. However, Divs. 3LNO have accounted for a steadily increasing percentage in recent years, from about half in 2009 to 70% in 2014.
• The overall exploitable biomass has recently declined. Divs. 3LNO now account for most of the biomass.
• Overall, recruitment has declined in recent years and is expected to decline further in the short term (2‑3 years). Recruitment may improve soon thereafter.
• The emergence of a pulse of small crabs, associated with cooling oceanographic conditions in the past three years, suggest a modest increase in recruitment within some NAFO Divisions in about 6 to 8 years. However, a warm oceanographic regime suggests weak recruitment in the longer term.

Divisions 2HJ

• Landings were at their lowest level in two decades in 2013 but increased by 25% to 1,740 t in 2014. Effort has been at its lowest level in two decades during the last two years.
• Catch per unit of effort (CPUE) has increased since 2012.
• The exploitable biomass has increased since 2011, as reflected by continued improvement in the post-season trawl survey index.
• Recruitment has increased since 2011.
• Short-term (2‑3 year) recruitment prospects are uncertain due to variability in the pre-recruit biomass index.
• The pre-recruit fishing mortality index has increased over the past ten years to above the median level.
• The exploitation rate index increased steadily from 2007-12 but decreased to a moderate level in the past two years. Maintaining the current level of fishery removals would further reduce the exploitation rate in 2015.

Division 3K Offshore

• Landings declined by half since 2009 to 6,100 t in 2014, their lowest level in two decades. Meanwhile Effort has declined by a third.
• CPUE declined by half from 2008 to 2011 and has since changed little, remaining near a historic low level.
• The post-season trawl and trap survey exploitable biomass indices have both declined steadily since 2008 to be at or near their lowest levels.
• Recruitment has been poor since 2009.
• Recruitment is expected to remain low in the short term (2‑3) years. The post-season trawl and trap survey pre-recruit biomass indices have both declined since 2008 to their lowest levels.
• The pre-recruit fishing mortality index has varied at a moderate level since 2009.
• The exploitation rate index increased from 2008‑10 and has since changed little.
• Maintaining the current level of fishery removals would result in a continued high exploitation rate in 2015.

Division 3K Inshore

• Landings declined from 2,900 t in 2009 to 1,750 t in 2014, due to declines in CMA 3D (Notre Dame Bay) and 3C (Green Bay) where TACs were not taken in most of the past 5 years. Overall, effort has declined since 2011.
• CPUE has remained low during the past four years in CMAs 3C and 3D, whereas it remained high in CMA 3B (White Bay).
• The CPS (Collaborative post-season) trap surveys indicate that the exploitable biomass has remained low in CMAs 3C and 3D in the past 4 years. The DFO trap survey indicates the exploitable biomass in CMA 3B has remained high.
• Recruitment has been low during the past 3‑4 years in CMAs 3C and 3D. Recruitment peaked at its highest level in 2012 in CMA 3B but has since declined.
• Recruitment is expected to remain low in the short term in CMAs 3C and 3D and to continue to decline in CMA 3B.
• In the last two years, the post-season trap survey-based exploitation rate index has changed little in CMA 3D, has declined in 3B and has increased sharply in 3C.
• Data are insufficient to estimate the pre-recruit fishing mortality index.
• Maintaining the current level of fishery removals would likely result in little change in the exploitation rate overall in 2015 with continued high exploitation in CMA 3C.

Divisions 3LNO Offshore

• Landings have remained near their highest level, at about 26,000 t, in the past 3 years. Effort declined considerably from 2011‑13 but increased slightly in 2014.
• CPUE increased from 2009‑13 and changed little in 2014.
• The indices of exploitable biomass from spring and fall trawl and trap surveys decreased, to differing degrees, in 2014.
• Recruitment has declined since 2012.
• Recruitment is expected to decline further in the short term (2‑3 years). The pre-recruit biomass indices spring and fall trawl and trap surveys have declined since 2010.
• The exploitation rate index has changed little over the last four years. The pre-recruit fishing mortality index has remained relatively low since 2008.
• Maintaining the current level of fishery removals would likely increase the exploitation rate in 2015.

Division 3L Inshore

• Landings have increased gradually since 2010 to a historical high of 8,000 t in 2014 while overall effort has declined.
• CPUE has been near its highest level for the past three years but there has been considerable variability among management areas.
• The post-season trap survey index suggests the overall exploitable biomass has increased steadily since 2008 to its highest level in the time series. Most management areas have experienced increases in recent years.
• Overall recruitment has declined gradually since 2010, although there is considerable variability among management areas.
• Recruitment is expected to decline further in the short-term (2‑3 years). The post-season trap survey pre-recruit biomass index decreased in the past two years.
• The post-season trap survey-based exploitation rate index has changed little over the time series, with considerable variability among management areas.
• Data are insufficient to estimate a pre-recruit fishing mortality index.
• Maintaining the current level of fishery removals would likely decrease the exploitation rate in 2015.

Subdivision 3Ps Offshore

• Landings declined from a peak of 4200 t in 2011 to 2700 t in 2014. Meanwhile, TACs have not been taken and effort has increased to a record high level.
• CPUE has steadily declined since 2009 to a record low in 2014.
• The exploitable biomass, as indicated by the spring trawl and fall trap survey indices, has been at its lowest level during the past two years.
• Both trap and trawl surveys indicate recruitment has declined since 2009.
• Recruitment is expected to remain low in the short term (2‑3 years) as pre-recruit biomass indices from both trap and trawl surveys declined rapidly from 2009 to their lowest levels in 2013‑14.
• The exploitation rate index has been at or near its highest level during the past two years. The pre-recruit fishing mortality index has increased steadily since 2010 to its highest level in 2014.
• Maintaining the current level of fishery removals would result in a continued high exploitation rate in 2015.

Subdivision 3Ps Inshore

• Landings remained at 2,500 t from 2011‑13 but decreased to 2,200 t in 2014. Effort has increased steadily since 2010.
• CPUE remained at a high level from 2010‑12 but has declined sharply in the past two years.
• The exploitable biomass, as indicated by the post-season trap survey index, declined since 2012 to its lowest level in eight years.
• Recruitment declined substantially in the past two years to its lowest level.
• Recruitment is expected to remain low for at least 2‑3 years. The pre-recruit biomass index declined by more than half from 2007‑11 and has since changed little.
• The post-season trap survey-based exploitation rate index changed little from 2008‑13 but nearly doubled in 2014. Data are insufficient to estimate a pre-recruit fishing mortality index.
• Maintaining the current level of fishery removals would result in an increase in the exploitation rate in 2015.

Division 4R Offshore

• Data are insufficient to assess resource status.

Division 4R Inshore

• Landings have increased from a historical low of 155 t in 2010 to about 600 t in 2013‑14. Effort has been stable for the last three years.
• CPUE has been near an all-time high for the last three years.
• The exploitable biomass index peaked in 2011 and has since declined to its previous level.
• Recruitment has declined since 2011 to its lowest level.
• Recruitment prospects are unfavourable in the short term (2‑3 years). The trap survey index of pre-recruit-sized males peaked in 2009 and has since declined to its lowest level.
• The post-season trap survey-based exploitation rate index decreased in 2012 and has since changed little.
• Data are insufficient to estimate a pre-recruit fishing mortality index.
• Maintaining the current level of fishery removals would result in an increase in the exploitation rate in 2015.

This Science Advisory Report is from the February 24-26, 2015 regional peer review process on the Newfoundland and Labrador Snow Crab Assessment. Additional publications from this meeting will be posted on the Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science Advisory Schedule as they become available.

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