Science Advisory Report 2016/005

Stock Assessment of North Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) subdivision 3Ps cod

Summary

• The DFO Research Vessel (RV) survey covers most of the stock area and is designed to provide an index of stock size. Therefore, consistent with recent assessments, a cohort model (SURBA) based on this survey was used to infer overall stock trends.
• The stock is currently in the Cautious Zone as defined by the DFO Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework. The spawning stock biomass (SSB) has declined since 2012 and is currently estimated to be 41% above the limit reference point (LRP; B_Recovery = SSB₁₉₉₄). The probability of being below the LRP in 2015 is low (p=0.05). Concern is expressed that there are few older fish in the SSB.
• Recruitment has improved over the last decade with most cohorts at or above the time-series (1983‑2014) average. In particular, indications are that the 2011 and 2012 cohorts are strong.
• Estimated total mortality has generally been increasing since 1997 to near the time-series maximum. Over 2012‑14, it averaged 0.65 (48% annual mortality), which is high especially considering that reported landings have been about half of the Total Allowable Catch (TAC)s over this time period.
• Projection of the stock to 2016 was conducted assuming mortality rates will be within ± 20% of current values (2012‑14 average). Projected SSB increases in all cases (ranging from 23‑46%) but remains within the Cautious Zone. These increases are driven by the relatively abundant 2011 year-class.
• Based on the Conservation Plan and Rebuilding Strategy adopted by Canada the calculated TAC for 2016/17 would be 13,043 t.
• Recent trends in mean size and weight-at-age, fish condition, and age-at-maturity are at or near their lowest observed levels, suggesting reduced productivity of this stock. This is consistent with broader ecosystem trends which also suggest decreased productivity.

This Science Advisory Report is from the October 20‑22, 2015 3Ps Cod Stock Assessment. Additional publications from this meeting will be posted on the Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science Advisory Schedule as they become available.

Complete document (PDF, 853 KB)

Accessibility Notice

This document is available in PDF format. If the document is not accessible to you, please contact the Secretariat to obtain another appropriate format, such as regular print, large print, Braille or audio version.