Science Advisory Report 2019/009

Stock Assessment of NAFO Subdivision 3Ps Cod

Summary

• Consistent with recent assessments, a cohort model (SURBA) based on the spring DFO survey was used to infer overall stock trends.
• The 2018 Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) is estimated to be in the Cautious Zone (49% above B_lim) as defined by the DFO Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework. The probability that the stock is in the critical zone is 0.04.
• SSB has increased since 2015. In 2018, 71% of the SSB is comprised of ages 6 and 7.
• Recruitment has generally been at or above the time-series average since 2005, with a particularly strong cohort produced in 2011.
• Estimated total mortality remains high. Over 2015-17, total mortality averaged 0.61 (54% survival per year), however the relative contributions of natural and fishing mortality to total mortality are unknown.
• Projection of the stock to 2021 was conducted assuming total mortality rates will be within +/- 20% of current values (2015 to 2017 average). All projections show SSB in 2021 to be lower than SSB in 2018. Where total mortality is assumed to remain at or above current levels, projections indicate that SSB in 2020 and 2021 to be at or below B_lim.
• The ecosystem in Subdivision 3Ps remains under reduced productivity conditions. Spring bloom magnitude and zooplankton biomass have shown very low levels since 2014, which would negatively impact transfer of energy to higher trophic levels. However, there are some improvements in biological indicators for cod in 2018 (e.g. condition and diet).

This Science Advisory Report is from the October 16‑17, 2018 Assessment of Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Subdivision 3Ps Atlantic Cod. Additional publications from this meeting will be posted on the Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science Advisory Schedule as they become available.

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