Science Advisory Report 2019/024
Sustainable harvest advice for Cumberland Sound beluga based on the 2017 aerial survey and modelled abundance estimates
Summary
- Cumberland Sound Beluga (CSB) are harvested by hunters from the hamlet of Pangnirtung. Since 2002 the quota for CSB has been 41 animals a year. An assessment in 2016 indicated this harvest was not sustainable.
- Two aerial surveys to estimate CSB abundance were flown in 2017. The estimated average abundance from the two surveys was 1,381 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1,270–1,502) belugas.
- To estimate current abundance and determine trends in population dynamics a population model was fit to the series of survey estimates from 1990–2017 and reported annual harvests from 1960–2017.
- Accounting for recent trends and survey estimates the model estimated a 2018 abundance of 1,090 (95% CI: 617–1,864) belugas.
- The addition of the 2017 abundance and harvest information makes it possible to provide advice on sustainable harvest levels from the population model.
- The model estimated that a Total Allowable Landed Catch (TALC) of 0, 14, or 20 beluga per year would result in a 0%, 25%, and 50% probability of decline, respectively, in the CSB population in ten years.
- Under the current quota the model estimated a 96% probability of population decline in ten years.
This Science Advisory Report is from the February 11–15, 2019 Cumberland Sound Beluga Survey 2017 – Population Abundance Estimate. Additional publications from this meeting will be posted on the Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science Advisory Schedule as they become available.
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