Science Advisory Report 2019/32

Assessment of the Northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (3Pn, 4RS) Atlantic Cod Stock in 2018

Summary

• Starting in 2017-2018, the total allowable catch increased from 1,500 t to 3,185 t, which corresponds to a fishing allocation of 2,769 t. The preliminary landings totaled 2,670 t in 2017-2018 and 2,515 t in 2018-2019.
• In 2018, there were 39 recreational fishing days between June and September. This fishery’s catches are unknown.
• In 2017, the commercial longline fishery performance index remained above the series average, while it declined and was situated at the average level for the gillnet fishery. The performance index of the commercial longline fishery in Quebec has remained above the series average since 2015.
• The standardized catch rates of the longline and gillnet sentinel fishing programs declined in the last two years. In 2018, the longline index was below the series average and the gillnet index was close to the average.
• DFO’s research survey abundance index was above average from 2014 to 2016 and decreased in 2017. In 2018, it increased slightly and was comparable to the series average. In 2018, the sentinel trawl survey abundance index was the second lowest value since 1995.
• The spawning stock biomass (SSB) estimated from the Virtual Population Analysis (VPA) model declined the past two years to the lowest values in 20 years (11,774 t in 2019). This decrease would be attributable to high total mortality.
• Natural mortality estimated by the VPA is increasing, it had a value of 0.7 for 2014-2018. The empirical estimate of total realized mortality, independently from the model, using DFO and sentinel surveys corroborates trends in increasing estimates of fishing mortality and natural mortality estimated by the VPA. Causes of this mortality include unrecorded fishing mortality and predation by Grey and Harp seals, but their importance is unknown.
• The estimated exploitation rates from the VPA and the tagging program doubled since the last evaluation in 2016. In 2018, they were 0.18 and 0.21, respectively.
• For 2020 and 2021, projections of annual harvests of 300 t and 1,500 t indicate a slight decrease in SSB with a probability greater than 75% and 85%, respectively. These estimates are greatly influenced by that of natural mortality estimate.
• The SSB estimate for January 2019 is situated in the critical zone and represents only 10% of the limit reference point. According to the precautionary approach, harvests from all sources should be as low as possible to promote spawning biomass recovery.

This Science Advisory Report is from the February 21 and 22, 2019 meeting on the assessment of the Northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (3Pn, 4RS) cod. Additional publications from this meeting will be posted on the Fisheries and Oceans Canada Science Advisory Schedule as they become available.

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