Science Advisory Report 2019/045

Review of Alberta Environment and Parks Cumulative Effects Assessment Joe Model

Summary

• The DFO Science sector provides science advice to the Species at Risk Program for species that have been assessed by COSEWIC as Endangered or Threatened in the form of a Recovery Potential Assessment (RPA). One component of the RPA process is a threats assessment; to date threats assessments have been hampered by a lack of efficient tools. The Alberta Environment and Parks (AEP) Cumulative Effects Assessment Joe Model provides a novel approach by incorporating a standardized response (y-axis) that allows a prioritization of threats (doses/stressor). These stressor-response curves (i.e., dose-response curves) are the key functional component of the model.
• The model provides a framework for assessing threats (and possibly other effects) in an additive manner and generates hypotheses to inform and direct adaptive management actions. It also allows investigation of trade-offs under alternative scenarios of threats and/or recovery actions.
• It is a static model designed to assess system capacity (i.e., potential for the system to support adult individuals) as a function of the threats that have been assessed. The output from the model is expected to be testable.
• This is a semi-quantitative static modelling approach that can be used to prioritize among multiple threats at hierarchical levels and focus potential threat analyses and recovery actions. For example, it is scalable geographically from local to regional levels and taxonomically from the population level to larger designatable units. It is a structured and transferable approach that reduces subjectivity associated with the outputs.
• As a static model it is designed to assess threats affecting the population and does not directly or dynamically predict the population response. As an additive model (on a logarithmic scale) it does not incorporate interactions among threats.
• Quantitative and qualitative data, including monitoring data, traditional knowledge, local knowledge, and expert opinion, are appropriate to use in this approach, provided the uncertainty and underlying assumptions are clearly stated.
• The model represents an additional tool for managers to understand threats to system capacity and investigate scenarios intended to maintain or recover populations. As with any model, the output should be interpreted in the context of the underlying assumptions, limitations, and degrees of uncertainty.
• Users of the model should:
• Explicitly state the uncertainty and underlying assumptions;
• Undertake model validation, particularly adaptive management at appropriate scales and refinement of stressor-response curves, to further improve the model and its application over time; and
• Conduct sensitivity analyses of stressors and stressor-response curves.
• The Joe model is complementary to the threat assessment matrix within RPAs and provides a more structured approach to assessing threats. Application of the model and its outputs should be further explored and its utility confirmed in future RPAs.
• This approach has the potential to inform Recovery Planning undertaken by the DFO Species at Risk Program by generating informed hypotheses and focusing management and research activities.
• There is potential for applicability and utility of the approach (i.e., threats assessment and prioritization) to the DFO Species at Risk Program and additional sectors (e.g., Fisheries and Aquaculture Management, Oceans Management, Fish and Fish Habitat Protection Program). The development of a focused research program within the Science sector to investigate model parameterization (e.g., develop and refine stressor-response curves) would be necessary for program delivery.

This Science Advisory Report is from the September 18–20, 2018 Review of the Alberta Environment and Parks Cumulative Effects Assessment Methodology. Additional publications from this meeting will be posted on the Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science Advisory Schedule as they become available.

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