Science Advisory Report 2019/048

Assessment of 2J3KL Capelin in 2018

Summary

• Since 2015, primary and secondary production indices (phytoplankton and zooplankton) for the NL Shelf have been below the 1999-2015 average and zooplankton community structure has changed, with a shift to smaller species. These changes have potential negative impacts on energy transfer to higher trophic levels, including pelagic planktivorous species.
• The 2018 spring acoustic abundance index increased relative to 2017, but was still only approximately 25% of the post-collapse (after 1990) high in 2014.
• Distribution during the spring acoustic survey in 2018 was more concentrated inshore and shifted towards the northwest portion of NAFO Divs. 3L compared to recent years.
• The size at age of younger Capelin (age 1-2) increased post-1990, while the age at maturity decreased. Most Capelin now mature at age 2 or 3. The age structure of the stock has truncated with substantially fewer Capelin in older age classes (4-5) and no age 6’s in recent years.
• The condition of Capelin was above average in 2018 and the proportion of fish with empty stomachs was low, potentially indicating good feeding conditions and/or low density/abundance of Capelin.
• The entire Total Allowable Catch (TAC) (19,823 t) was landed in 2018.
• The mean length and weight of Capelin landed in the 2018 commercial fishery increased from the time series low in 2017 due to a higher proportion of older (age 3) fish. Capelin in the commercial fishery, however, remain smaller than the early to mid-2010s.
• Spawning in 2018 was more broadly distributed and approximately five days earlier than previous years (2016-17). Overall, spawning times since 2015 have been delayed and productivity (i.e. emergent larvae) at monitored spawning sites in 2018 was at a time series low.
• The Capelin larval abundance index has been low for five consecutive years, similar to the early 2000s. The larval abundance index and larval emergence patterns suggest that the 2018 year class may be small.
• A forecast model which incorporates the Capelin larval abundance index, adult fall Capelin condition, and the timing of sea ice retreat predicts that the spring acoustic abundance index will increase again in 2019, but decrease in 2020.
• The results of the forecast model, in conjunction with the results of the spring 2018 acoustic survey, suggest that the amount of Capelin available to the fishery in 2019 should be similar to that of 2018.

This Science Advisory Report is from the March 19-21, 2019 Assessment of 2J+3KL Capelin. Additional publications from this meeting will be posted on the Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science Advisory Schedule as they become available.

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