Science Advisory Report 2021/045

Assessment of 2J3KL Capelin in 2019

Summary

• The recent NL climate has experienced cold conditions between the mid-1980s and the mid 1990s, and from about 2012 to 2017. These cold conditions are associated with positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and changes in large-scale ocean circulation (e.g., increased Labrador Current transport along the NL shelf edge).
• Primary (chlorophyll) and secondary (zooplankton biomass) production indices have improved over the past 3-4 years. However, changes in zooplankton community structure up to 2018 have resulted in fewer large copepods which are an important energy source for adult Capelin, and increased abundance of small copepods which indicate improved foraging conditions for larval Capelin.
• Ecosystem conditions in the Newfoundland Shelf and Northern Grand Bank (NAFO Divs. 2J3KL) are indicative of limited productivity of the fish community. Total RV Biomass index remains much lower than prior to the early-1990s. After some recovery since this collapse, current levels of Total RV Biomass index are reduced from those observed in the early-2010s.
• The increases in groundfish observed in the late-2000s and early-2010s appear associated with bottom-up processes, including an improved prey field, with modest increases in Capelin availability in comparison with the 1990s. Capelin and shrimp are key forage species in the ecosystem. More recent declines in total finfish biomass may be associated with simultaneous reductions in Capelin and shrimp availability.
• Predation mortality and consumption of Capelin by fishes declined in 2017-19, suggesting reduced availability of Capelin in the system.
• The commercial fishery in 2019 landed 20,405 t, which is consistent with average landings for the past 10 years (22,000 t). Overall, current removals from predation are large compared to the fishery. However, with declining predation and declining stock size, the proportional impact of fishing has increased.
• There have been six consecutive low larval abundance years (2014-19) including all of the year-classes available to the fishery in 2020.
• The index of Capelin biomass in the 2019 spring acoustic survey was 283 kt (239-356 kt, 95% confidence intervals), near the average biomass index observed from 1999 to 2019 (272 kt), though remaining well below the average observed in the late1980s (1988-1990; 4,593 kt).
• The acoustic abundance index in the 2019 spring survey was 18.5 billion (15.5-23.5 billion, 95% confidence intervals), which is below the average levels observed from 1999 to 2019 (26.6 billion), and the late 1980s (1988-1990, 413.3 billion). Observations of prey consumption by fish predators, Capelin distribution, growth rates, and maturation at age in 2019 are consistent with historical patterns of low abundance.
• In 2019, there was a lower than average proportion of age 2 Capelin in the spring acoustic survey, 80% of which were maturing. Due to the high rate of post-spawning mortality, a decrease in the availability of these Capelin, at age 3, is expected in 2020.
• The forecast model projects that the spring acoustic biomass index in 2020 will be lower than 2019 with a high probability (90%), returning to levels similar to those observed in 2017. The probability of an increase is low (10%).

This Science Advisory Report is from the March 11-13, 2020 Regional Peer Review for the Assessment of Divisions 2J and 3KL Capelin. Additional publications from this meeting will be posted on the Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science Advisory Schedule as they become available.

Science Advisory Report 2021/045 (PDF, 1,144 KB)

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