Science Response 2012/012

Harvest Scenarios for Atlantic Mackerel (Scomber scombrus L.) for the 2012 and 2013 Fishing Seasons

Context

Atlantic Mackerel in NAFO subareas 3 and 4 were assessed on April 18, 2012 at Mont-Joli in order to provide a scientificadvice for the 2012 and 2013 fishing seasons. After this meeting, highlights of the assessment were presented on April 24 during a conference call with fishery managers. During this call, Fisheries and Aquaculture Management requested that new scenarios regarding fishing mortality be examined in order to help the Department in setting TACs and in assessing the impact on spawning biomass. These scenarios are: (1) 2011 fishing mortality, (2) 2011 fishing mortality – 25%, and (3) 2011 fishing mortality + 50%.

Given the short time frame (advice due on May 1, 2012), a Science Special Response Process (SSRP) was used to present the results of the three scenarios. This Science response comes from the April 30, 2012 meeting on the assessment of Atlantic Mackerel harvest scenarios for the 2012 and 2013 fishing seasons.

Catch projections for 2012 and 2013 based on the 2011 fishing mortality or at a higher level would result in decreases in the spawning biomass. A reduction of at least 15% of it would be associated with a 50% increase ofthe 2011 fishing mortality.

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