Science Response 2018/024

Update of the projections for Atlantic Mackerel (Subareas 3 and 4)

Context

The assessment of Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) of subareas 3 and 4 is undertaken every two year, with the TAC usually rolled over during interim years. From the last stock assessment (DFO 2017), scientific advice was provided, in part, in the form of standard projections of spawning stock biomass (SSB) over a 3-year period (2016-2019). Both the probabilities of growth out of the Critical Zone and of any stock growth under various levels of total catch (declared and undeclared) were provided, and were used to support the 2017 advice on catch levels. The TAC in 2017 was set at 10,000 t, assuming that total removals (reported and unreported catch) in the commercial, bait and recreational fisheries would equal 16,000 t.

Fisheries Management has engaged the DFO Science Branch to provide an update of assessment model projections for Atlantic Mackerel (Subareas 3 and 4) to support the ongoing development of a Rebuilding Plan and a Management Strategy Evaluation. Both processes are occurring via the Atlantic Mackerel Rebuilding Plan Working Group. Specifically, Science was requested to provide projections of total catch rates or F values that would 1) increase the Atlantic Mackerel spawning stock biomass (SSB) out of the Critical Zone in a) 5, b) 10 and c) 15 years, with 75% probability, and 2) double the spawning stock biomass of Atlantic Mackerel in 10 years. A probability of 75% was chosen to reflect the desire for a “high probability” (DFO 2009).

This Science Response Report results from the Science Response Process of March 2, 2018 on the update of the projections for Atlantic Mackerel (Subareas 3 and 4)

Complete document (PDF, 479 KB)

Accessibility Notice

This document is available in PDF format. If the document is not accessible to you, please contact the Secretariat to obtain another appropriate format, such as regular print, large print, Braille or audio version.