Science Response 2021/004

2020 Stock Status Update for Northern Cod

Context

The Atlantic cod Gadus morhua stock on the Newfoundland and Labrador continental shelf in NAFO Divs. 2J3KL (Northern cod) is typically assessed using an age-structured state-space model (Northern Cod Assessment Model [NCAM], Cadigan 2016a and 2016b). A conservation Limit Reference Point (LRP) was established for Northern cod in 2010 (DFO 2011), re-evaluated in 2019 (DFO 2019a), and is defined as the average spawning stock biomass (SSB) during the 1980s. This reference point is the stock level below which serious harm is occurring and the ability to produce good recruitment is seriously impaired. This reference point also defines the boundary between the critical and cautious zones within Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s (DFO) Precautionary Approach (PA) framework (DFO 2009).

In 2018, the Minister of Fisheries and Oceans Canada announced that Northern cod would be assessed annually for the next five years. However, the global COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the full stock assessment scheduled for March 24-27, 2020. To provide a timely review of the most recent data, a science response was conducted remotely in lieu of a full assessment. The assessment model (NCAM) and associated projections were not run as part of this process.

The 2019 stock assessment reported that the Northern cod stock remained at 48% of the Limit Reference Point, in the Critical Zone of DFO’s PA framework (DFO 2009; DFO 2019b). The advice from this assessment stated: “Consistency with the DFO decision-making framework incorporating the precautionary approach requires that removals from all sources must be kept at the lowest possible level until the stock clears the critical zone”. Projections carried out at that time with six catch scenarios ranging from zero to 1.3 times the model estimated catch for 2018 (13,796 t) indicated that the probability that SSB would reach the LRP by 2022 ranged between 6-9%.

The goal of this Science Response process was to determine whether or not the advice from the 2019 full assessment was still applicable based on up-to-date data inputs. This Science Response Report results from the Regional Peer Review Process held in St. John’s, NL on April 1‑2, 2020 on the Stock Assessment of Northern Cod (Divs. 2J3KL).

The meeting reviewed the following information:

1. ecosystem indicators of productivity;
2. the DFO fall Research Vessel (RV) survey (specifically: indices of abundance and biomass);
3. the inshore sentinel catch rate index; and
4. removals from commercial reported catch and recreational catch estimates based on tagging data.

Science Response 2021/004 (PDF, 1,687 KB)

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