Terms of Reference

Regional Advisory Meeting

Recovery Potential Assessment - Atlantic Salmon Designated Units (DU) of the Inner Bay of Fundy

25-28 March 2008

Dartmouth, N.S.

Chairperson: Tana Worcester

Context

When the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) designates aquatic species as threatened or endangered, DFO, as the responsible jurisdiction under the Species at Risk Act (SARA), is required to undertake a number of actions. Many of these actions require scientific information on the current status of the designable unit (DU), threats to its survival and recovery, and the feasibility of its recovery. Formulation of this scientific advice has typically been developed through a Recovery Potential Assessment (RPA) that is conducted shortly after the COSEWIC assessment. This timing allows for the consideration of peer-reviewed scientific analyses into SARA processes including recovery planning.

The endangered inner Bay of Fundy (iBoF) Atlantic salmon was listed when SARA was passed and obtained protection (illegal to kill, harm, harass, capture, take, etc.) when the legislation came fully into force in 2004. Consequently no RPA was undertaken.

Because a recovery team for the iBoF Atlantic salmon was in existence and very active prior to the enactment of SARA, a Recovery Strategy was developed for this species prior to the Act coming into force. However, SARA outlines specific elements that must be included in a Recovery Strategy. As a result, since 2003, the recovery team has been formulating advice to DFO with respect to a revised draft. In advance of finalizing the Recovery Strategy for this species, DFO Science has been asked to undertake an RPA, based on the National Framework (DFO 2007a), to inform the scientific elements of the recovery strategy. The advice generated via this process will also update and/or consolidate any existing advice regarding this DU.

Objectives

Assess the Current Status of the Atlantic Salmon DU

To the extent possible with the information available, and taking account of uncertainties:

1. Evaluate present DU status for abundance, marine and freshwater range, and number of rivers containing salmon. Explicitly indicate the rivers in which salmon have not been found during recent surveys and comment on the likelihood of extirpation.

2. Evaluate recent species trajectory for abundance, marine and freshwater range, and number of rivers containing salmon.

3. Estimate, to the extent that information allows, the current or recent life-history parameters for the DU (total mortality, natural mortality, fecundity, maturity, recruitment, etc.) or reasonable surrogates; and associated uncertainties for all parameters.

4. Estimate expected abundance and distribution targets for recovery, according to DFO guidelines (DFO 2005).

5. Project expected DU trajectories over three generations (or other biologically reasonable time), and trajectories over time to the recovery target (if possible to achieve), given current DU dynamics parameters and associated uncertainties using DFO guidelines on long-term projections (Shelton et al. 2007).

Assess the Habitat use of the Atlantic Salmon DU

To the extent possible with the information available, and taking account of uncertainties:

6. Provide functional descriptions (as defined in DFO 2007b) of the properties of the aquatic habitat that the DU needs for successful completion of all life-history stages.

7. Provide information on the spatial extent of the areas in the DU’s marine and freshwater range that are likely to have these properties.

8. Identify the activities most likely to threaten the properties that give the sites their value, and provide information on the extent and consequences of these activities.

9. Quantify the presence and extent of spatial configuration constraints, if any, such as connectivity, barriers to access, etc.

10. Assess to the extent possible how threats to habitats identified in the COSEWIC Status Report (COSEWIC 2006) have reduced habitat quantity and quality to date, if at all.

11. Provide advice on the degree to which supply of suitable habitat meets the demands of the species both at present, and when the species reaches biologically based recovery targets for abundance, marine and freshwater range, and number of rivers.

12. Provide advice on the extent to which various threats can alter the quality and/or quantity of habitat that is available.

13. Recommend research or analysis activities that are necessary in order to complete these habitat-use Terms of Reference if current information is incomplete.

Assess the Scope for Management to Facilitate Recovery

To the extent possible with the information available, and taking account of uncertainties:

14. Assess the probability that the recovery targets can be achieved under current rates of DU dynamics parameters, and how that probability would vary with different mortality (especially lower) and productivity (especially higher) parameters. Undertake this analysis using two scenarios – with and without the productivity input of the Live Gene Bank program.

15. Quantify to the extent possible the magnitude of each major potential source of mortality identified in the COSEWIC Status Report, from DFO sectors, and other sources.

16. Provide advice on feasibility of restoring habitat to higher values, if supply may not meet demand by the time recovery targets would be reached.

17. Provide advice on any tradeoffs (i.e., pros and cons) associated with habitat “allocation” options, if any options would be available at the time when specific areas are designated as Critical Habitat.

Assess Scenarios for Mitigation and Alternative to Activities

To the extent possible with the information available, and taking account of uncertainties:

18. Using input from all DFO sectors and other sources as appropriate, develop an inventory of potential measures that could be used to minimize/mitigate the impacts of activities identified in Steps 12 and 15.

19. Using input from all DFO sectors and other sources as appropriate, develop an inventory of potential alternatives to the activities in Steps 12 and 15 and comment on their relative impact to the DU.

20. Using input from all DFO sectors and other sources as appropriate, develop an inventory of activities that could increase the productivity or survivorship parameters (Steps 3 and 14).

21. Estimate, to the extent possible, the recovery (gain in productivity) expected by each of the mitigation measures in Step 18 or alternatives in Step 19.

22. Project expected population trajectory (and uncertainties) over three generations (or other biologically reasonable time), and to the time of reaching recovery targets when recovery is feasible; given mortality rates and productivities associated with specific scenarios identified for exploration (as above).

Outputs

• CSAS Science Advisory Report

• CSAS Proceedings of meeting

• CSAS Research Document(s)

Participation

• DFO Science

• DFO Fisheries and Aquaculture Management, Oceans and Habitat Management, Policy and Economics, and the SARA Coordination Office

• Aboriginal Communities

• Parks Canada

• Provinces of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick

• External Reviewers

• Industry

• Non-governmental organizations

• Other Stakeholders

References:

COSEWIC. 2006. COSEWIC assessment and update status report on the Atlantic salmon Salmo salar (Inner Bay of Fundy populations) in Canada. Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada. Ottawa.

DFO. 2005. A framework for developing science advice on recovery targets for aquatic species in the context of the Species at Risk Act. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2005/054.

DFO. 2007a. Revised Protocol for Conducting Recovery Potential Assessments. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2007/039.

DFO. 2007b. Documenting habitat use of species at risk and quantifying habitat quality. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2007/038.

Shelton, P.A., B. Best, A. Cass, C. Cyr, D. Duplisea, J. Gibson, M. Hammill, S. Khwaja, M. Koops, K. Martin, B. O’Boyle, J. Rice, A. Sinclair, K. Smedbol, D. Swain, L. Velez-Espino, and C. Wood. 2007. Assessing recovery potential: long-term projections and their implications for socio-economic analysis. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2007/045.