Terms of Reference

Annual Meeting of the National Marine Mammal Peer Review Committee: Seals, Steller Sea Lion, Beluga, Bottlenose Whale, Leatherback Turtle, and Narwhal

National Advisory Meeting

November 22-26, 2010
Mont Joli, Quebec

Chairperson: Don Bowen

Introduction

The National Marine Mammal Peer Review Committee (NMMPRC) holds an annual meeting to conduct scientific peer review of marine mammal issues. This approach gives the opportunity to bring together experts on marine mammals from Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) with specific contributions from non-DFO experts to ensure high quality review of the scientific results and to provide sound scientific advice as the basis for the management and conservation of marine mammals in Canada. When time permits, this annual meeting is also an opportunity to review ongoing research projects and provide feedback or guidance to the scientists involved.

Topics:

Harp Seal Population Estimate Resolution

Context: The most recent harp seal assessment survey (2008) resulted in two different estimates for pup production: the lower estimate derived from visual observations and the higher estimate derived from digital photographic estimates. These resulted in a lower (6.9M) and upper (8.2M) estimates of total population size. Science is conducting additional analyses in hopes of resolving this discrepancy re: upcoming Ecosystems and Fisheries Management (EFM) catch scenario requests.

Science advice has already been provided to EFM regarding the 2010 harp seal total allowable catch (TAC). However, it is important to try to resolve this discrepancy in order to add potential precisions on the current status and trend of northwest Atlantic harp seal population. EFM will request a range of harvest scenarios based on a resolved assessment.

Objectives: To determine if there is a resolution to the recent harp seal pup production and population estimates. In other words, is there a resolution to the discrepancy between visual and photographic estimates of pup production, and thus total population estimates? This discrepancy was identified in the context of the last peer review of the status of harp seal population conducted at the National Marine Mammal Peer Review Committee in fall 2009.

Working papers: One working paper will be the subject of a peer review.

Output of the meeting: One Research Document and one Science Advisory Report are expected.

Harp Seal TAC

Context: Harp seals, Pagophilus groenlandicus, are the most abundant pinniped in the northwest Atlantic with an estimated population size in 2009 of 6.9 million animals. The Canadian and Greenland hunt for Northwest Atlantic harp seals is the largest marine mammal harvest in the world. Since 2003, the Canadian commercial harp seal harvest has been managed under an Objective-Based Fisheries Management (OBFM) approach which incorporates the principle of the Precautionary Approach. Under this approach, precautionary reference levels are identified and are associated with pre-agreed management actions that are to be enacted if the population is estimated to decline further (Research Document 2003/067). Under OBFM, the management objective is to set harvests that will ensure an 80% probability (L20) that the population will remain above the precautionary reference level (N70), of 4.8 million animals. The limit reference level, for this population, also known as a conservation reference level has been set at N30 or 2.07 million animals. In evaluating the impacts of different harvest levels on the population, reported harvests by Canadian and Greenland hunters, losses due to animals struck but not landed or reported, bycatch in fishing gear, changes in reproductive rates, and unusual mortality due to poor ice conditions are taken into account.

Objectives: The objective of this peer-review is to provide advice to DFO Ecosystems & Fisheries Management on the impact of proposed harvest levels and sustainable harvest levels which will meet the objectives of OBFM and ensure that the harp seal population has an 80% likelihood that it will remain above N70 through the remainder of the duration of the Atlantic Seal Management Plan. Specifically, do the following scenarios have an 80% probability that the harp seal population will remain above 70% of its maximum observed size and still respect the management plan over the long term?

1. 320,000 (2011), 320,000 (2012), 320,000 (2013),
2. 300,000 (2011), 300,000 (2012), 300,000 (2013), and
3. 320,000 (2011), 300,000 (2012), 275,000 (2013)?

Working papers: One working paper will be the subject of a peer review.

Output of the meeting: One Research Document and one Science Advisory Report are expected.

Grey Seal Assessment & TAC

Context: In 2010, a new population survey of grey seals was conducted in early 2010 in order to provide new estimates of population parameters. There is a small commercial hunt for grey seals in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and along the Eastern Shore. Grey seals on Sable Island are currently protected. Grey seals are managed under the Objective Based Fisheries Management (OBFM) approach for Atlantic seals which was implemented in 2003. The management objective is to maintain an 80% probability (L20) that the population will remain above 70% (N70) of the largest population seen. For grey seals with a population of 300,000 animals, N70 is 210,000 animals.

The interaction between a growing grey seal population and fish stocks on the Atlantic Coast has become an issue of considerable interest, as cod stocks, in particular, continue to decline and fisheries become severely restricted or closed altogether. If aggressive seal management actions are to be considered by the Department, it is important to understand the long-term impacts on the population.

Objectives: Resource Management requests Science to provide an update on the status of this population. Advice should include information on the status of the overall population, as well as changes in the status of the three herds generally known by sub-areas as Sable Island, Eastern Shore and Gulf. Advice is being requested to evaluate the maximum number of animals that can be removed over a three-year period that will still respect the management plan over the long term, assuming harvests that are comprised of 95% young of the year, 5% animals aged 1+ and a second composition of the catch consisting of 50% young of the year and 50% animals aged 1+ years. A second scenario should examine how many animals would need to be removed if the population were to be reduced to N70 within 3 and 5 years assuming the above age-structure compositions of the harvest.

The assessment will provide managers with the information required to evaluate the proposed harvest levels and ensure their compliance with the principles and objectives of the upcoming 2011-2015 Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP) for seals, including compliance with the Precautionary Approach.

Advice provided will be discussed with stakeholders in various forums, with the end result being a recommendation to the Minister on grey seal TACs for the 2011 season. Advice will also be used as context in the IFMP. Advice will be considered in the development of any grey seal population management actions (e.g. population reduction and/or targeted removals).

Working papers: Several working papers will be the subject of peer review.

Output of the meeting: Several Research Documents and one Science Advisory Report are expected.

Integrated Fisheries Management Plan for Atlantic Seals

Context: The Canadian seal management framework established prior to the 2003 season and renewed in 2006 for a 5-year period recognizes two key reference points that create three population management zones. The first, termed N70, is set at 70% of the maximum observed population size. The second is N30 (30% of the maximum). The size of the population in relation to these two reference points indicates the health of the population and what management approach is to be followed in setting the TAC. These management approaches are pre-agreed in the Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP) for Atlantic seals.

A new five-year IFMP for Atlantic seals is in development by EFM. There have recently been questions regarding the precautionary levels as defined above in the current IFMP (for example, whether N70 is an appropriate level and what the uncertainty around this should be). Science will address these questions in this review. Advice will be used in the development of the new IFMP, which will be shared with various industry and stakeholder groups before implementation.

Objectives: Specifically, the objectives are to address the following questions:

1. Over what time period should the requirement to remain above the precautionary limit be in order to meet the management plan objectives (currently life of management plan)? For example, 15-20 years (1 generation?)?
2. What should the precautionary level (currently N70) be? At what level should we set the precautionary point to ensure a high (e.g. 97.5%) probability of avoiding falling below the N30?
3. How should uncertainty in the estimate of the metric (e.g. population) be taken into account (e.g. L20, L30, L40)?
4. If 'Carry forward' of uncaught quota is allowed, what would be the impact of an additional catch of up to 20% (currently 10%) be on our ability to meet the management objectives?
5. What is the appropriate measure to use when comparing to the precautionary level (e.g. pup production or total population)?

Working papers: One working paper will be the subject of a peer review.

Output of the meeting: One Research Document and one Science Advisory Report are expected.

Steller Sea Lion Population

Context: A new Steller sea lion (SSL) population survey was conducted in 2010 (previous survey was in 2006). These surveys provide the basis for assessing the population status, which is an identified action in the Species at Risk Act (SARA) SSL Management Plan. The last Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) assessment was based on data up to 2002 and the current survey will be the last survey completed prior to the species being re-assessed. It is important to document the continued growth and distribution of the population and to confirm new breeding sites (e.g. the Sea Otter Group and Garcin Rocks).

DFO will be the primary end user of this advice (for EFM and SARA recovery planning). The results of this advice will be of interest to commercial, sport and First Nations harvesters, along with conservation-oriented non-governmental organizations (NGO's), through the above noted planning processes. This assessment, combined with the accompanying diet assessment, will also be of interest academics and others studying ecosystem dynamics.

Objectives: To determine the current Pacific Steller sea lion (SSL) population, distribution and location of breeding rookeries in British Columbia waters.

Working papers: One working paper will be the subject of a peer review.

Output of the meeting: One Research Document and one Science Advisory Report are expected.

Steller Sea Lion Prey Requirements

Context: Potential prey limitation and the impact of SSL on commercially important species has been identified in the Species at Risk Act (SARA) SSL Management Plan as important issues for further study. In addition, concerns for several Pacific salmon species / populations make understanding the role of SSL in affecting salmon populations an important priority for harvest and ecosystem planning and management.

DFO will be the primary end user of this advice (for EFM and SARA recovery planning). The results of this advice will be of interest to commercial, sport and First Nations harvesters, along with conservation-oriented NGO's, through the above noted planning processes. This assessment, combined with the accompanying population assessment, will also be of interest academics and others studying ecosystem dynamics.

Objectives: To determine the prey requirements of Steller sea lions (SSL) in British Columbia, and the proportion of the diet comprised of each Pacific salmon species. Analysis will utilise scat contents and DNA to assess diet composition, the most recent population assessment, along with a bioenergetics model to estimate energy requirements and prey consumption.

Working papers: One working paper will be the subject of a peer review.

Output of the meeting: One Research Document and one Science Advisory Report are expected.

Nunavik Beluga Harvest Levels

Context: The beluga whale hunts in Nunavik are very important from a cultural and subsistence perspective. A multi-year Nunavik beluga management plan is to be prepared in 2010 for the 2011 season and beyond. The target harvest level should not further reduce the population of this stock that is designated as Endangered by COSEWIC.

Objectives: To determine (a) the maximum harvest of Eastern Hudson Bay (EHB) beluga that could occur that would have a 50%, 25%, and 5% chance of a population decline; and (b) the maximum harvest of EHB beluga that could occur that would have a 25%, 50%, and 75% chance of a population increase.

Working papers: One working paper will be the subject of a peer review.

Output of the meeting: One Research Document and one Science Advisory Report are expected.

Northern Bottlenose Whale Recovery Potential Assessment

Context: When COSEWIC designates aquatic species as threatened or endangered, DFO, as the responsible jurisdiction under SARA, is required to undertake a number of actions. Science information is required as early as possible in this “post-COSEWIC” process, to support development of scenarios for evaluating the social and economic costs of recovery, to inform public consultations, and serve other jurisdictional functions regarding the decision to list a species on Schedule 1 of the SARA. Scientific information is needed on the current status of the species, threats to its survival or recovery, and actions or alternatives possible to address the threats, particularly with regard to Section 73.3 of the Act. Formulation of this scientific advice has typically been developed through a Recovery Potential Assessment (RPA).

In April 1993 the Northern bottlenose whale was given a single designation of Not at Risk. The Canadian portion of this species was split into two populations in April 1996 to allow a separate designation of the Scotian Shelf population and the Labrador population. The Scotian Shelf population was designated by COSEWIC as Special Concern. Its status was uplisted to Endangered in November 2002. DFO conducted an RPA for the Scotian Shelf population of the Northern bottlenose whale in February 2007. The status of Northern bottlenose whale is anticipated to be reassessed by COSEWIC in the spring of 2011.

Science information is required to support development of scenarios for evaluating the social and economic costs of recovery, to inform public consultations, and serve other jurisdictional functions regarding the decision to list a species on Schedule 1 of the SARA. Should Northern bottlenose whales be listed, the information will be used to develop a recovery strategy and action plan.

Objectives: The objectives are to review the recovery potential of Northern bottlenose whale, including any new information on status and trends, habitat characterization, threats, mitigation and alternatives, recovery targets, and assessment of recovery potential.

Working papers: One working paper will be the subject of a peer review.

Output of the meeting: One Research Document and one Science Advisory Report are expected.

Leatherback Turtle

Context: A draft action plan for leatherback turtle is under development, with a first draft completed in fall 2009. As critical habitat was not identified in the recovery strategy (2007), this information will be presented in the action plan. To date, a DFO review committee consisting of Ian Jonsen, Jim McMillan, Jack Lawson, Kent Smedbol, and Mike James have provided direction for the analysis of critical habitat based on the best available scientific information (in this case, satellite telemetry data). Proposed maps of critical habitat are now available. DFO Science representatives from both Maritimes and Gulf region are represented in the current review committee. We wish to extend the peer review to include Science representation from Gulf and Quebec regions, where leatherbacks also occur.

DFO will be the end user of the critical habitat peer review. Following peer-review and identification of proposed critical habitat, delineation of potential threats to that habitat is required, followed by identification of measures that afford critical habitat protection.

Objectives: To review critical habitat identification for leatherback turtle action plan.

Working papers: One working paper will be the subject of a peer review.

Output of the meeting: One Research Document and one Science Advisory Report are expected.

Cumberland Sound Beluga

Context: Inuit traditional knowledge and scientific studies have shown that most belugas in Cumberland Sound are from a population that is distinct from those hunted in other communities. Cumberland Sound belugas are managed as a distinct stock.Since 1998, DFO and the Pangnirtung Hunters and Trappers Organization (HTO) have conducted research with which to update the population estimate for Cumberland Sound belugas. Information about movements and dive times, obtained from instrumented belugas, has increased the accuracy of population estimates derived from cliff counts and aerial surveys. Aerial surveys flown in 1999 have shown that there are most likely about 1,960 belugas in Cumberland Sound and they likely remain in or near Cumberland Sound year-round (the actual population size, with 90% confidence limits, lies between 1,594 and 2,409 belugas). Aerial surveys were conducted in August 2005, but poor weather affected survey coverage. As a result, it was not possible to show a further increase in the number of belugas in Cumberland Sound. Aerial surveys were conducted again in August 2009 and the results are being reviewed now.

DFO Science advice on population size and harvest levels will be used by DFO and NWMB to confirm/adjust the beluga quota for Pangnirtung.

Objectives: To determine the updated abundance estimate of the Cumberland Sound beluga population and to determine if adjustments to the current quota for Cumberland Sound beluga are needed.

Working papers: One working paper will be the subject of a peer review.

Output of the meeting: One Research Document and one Science Advisory Report are expected.

Ringed Seal

Context: Ringed Seal is a key component of Inuit subsistence harvest, and is in line for development of an Integrated Fishery Management Plan (IFMP). In addition, DFO periodically receives inquiries about the feasibility of establishing a commercial seal hunt in Nunavut. However, there is little information available to assess the stock and with which to assess the potential impact of a commercial hunt. 2010 will be the final year of a multi-year survey of ringed seals in Western Hudson Bay. The survey results are being reviewed here.

Objectives: To determine the current abundance estimate for the ringed seal (Pusa hispida) population in western Hudson Bay, and add to the information available which may be used as part of an overall assessment of ringed seal in this area.

Working papers: One working paper will be the subject of a peer review.

Output of the meeting: One Research Document and one Science Advisory Report are expected.

Baffin Bay Narwhal

Context: Interest in expanding the Greenland Halibut fisheries continues to increase in Arctic waters. Concerns regarding the environmental impacts of this fishery (e.g. marine mammal entanglement, ghost fishing, and competition for important prey species) as well as those of the ongoing shrimp trawl fishery (e.g., benthic impacts) also exist. Currently there is a fishing closure area in Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Division 0A meant to protect winter feeding habitat of narwhals. DFO Resource Management has asked for a review of the overwintering information for Baffin Bay Narwhal to evaluate the existing NAFO Division 0A fishing closure boundaries. The information requested will be also be used in the IFMP for Greenland Halibut which is under revision and it will also be incorporated into future versions of the narwhal Fishery Management Plan. This advice would also likely contribute to any Science/Oceans initiatives to identify Ecologically Significant Areas in the Eastern Arctic.

Objectives: To determine where narwhal aggregate in Baffin Bay during the winter, delineate the areas, describe the habitat and narwhal use, conduct density analysis of narwhal, and supply information on aggregation composition and timing.

Working papers: One working paper will be the subject of a peer review.

Output of the meeting: One Research Document and one Science Advisory Report are expected.

Northern Hudson Bay Narwhal

Context: Northern Hudson Bay (NHB) narwhal is a key Regional subsistence fishery. Aerial surveys to estimate NHB narwhal abundance were flown in 2008 and the results reviewed at the 2009 NMMPRC annual meeting. The results of the survey may reflect a decline in abundance of this narwhal stock however there were problems with the survey. Equipment issues may have affected the survey estimate, in addition to environmental factors such as ice cover, survey altitude, killer whale predation, and possible movement of narwhals out of their range.

The most current Stock Status Report for this population dates to 1998 (E5-44). Since then, the population has been surveyed twice, and additional research has been conducted (contaminants, genetics, distribution and movements, hunting mortality, effect of killer whale predation). A Stock Dynamic Model for NHB Narwhals has been developed to support the assessment of the current status of the stock. This included a review of the sustainability of hunting at the levels of recent years, evaluation of the most recent survey, flown in 2008, which returned a low estimate of stock size, but was plagued with problems of weather, sea-ice and equipment, and to consider whether the low estimate from that survey might be explained by a serious decrease in stock size.

Objectives: To review the NHB narwhal stock dynamic model.

Working papers: One working paper will be the subject of a peer review.

Output of the meeting: One Research Document and one Science Advisory Report are expected.

Nunavut Narwhal Stock Structure

Context: The Nunavut Wildlife Management Board (NWMB) wishes to begin the process of establishing Total Allowable Harvest (TAH) levels for the two Nunavut narwhal populations (Northern Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay). They are considering whether to establish TAH for each population, or at some smaller level (e.g. by summering aggregation).

Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s (DFO) advice on narwhal stock structure (DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2010/022, and DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2009/079) considered evidence from records of seasonal distribution, body size, and genetics/contaminants signatures. Satellite telemetry has provided the best indication of geographic segregation within the Baffin Bay narwhal population in summer. Northern Hudson Bay narwhal population appears to be geographically and genetically discrete from the Baffin Bay narwhal population.

Recently, narwhal skin samples from a variety of harvest locations have contributed to a new and more comprehensive genetics analysis of narwhal stock partitioning in the Canadian Arctic. This analysis may provide additional insight and support for managing narwhal by summering aggregation and is being reviewed here.

Objectives: To assess the results of recent efforts, using genetics methods, to discriminate among narwhals harvested at different summering aggregations within Nunavut.

Working papers: One working paper will be the subject of a peer review.

Output of the meeting: One Research Document and one Science Advisory Report are expected.

Participation

The participants invited to this meeting include DFO Oceans & Science, DFO Ecosystems & Fisheries Management, DFO Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat (CSAS); the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board (NWMB), the Canadian Sealers Association, Association des chasseurs de phoque des Îles-de-la-Madeleine; external scientists from the University of St. Andrews and International Fund for Animal Welfare.