Terms of Reference

Atlantic Cod Framework Meeting: Assessment Models, Medium-term Projections, Reference Points

Zonal Process – Gulf and Maritimes

December 6 to 8, 2010
Moncton, NB

Chairperson: G. Chaput

Context

COSEWIC has assessed as “Endangered” four designatable units of Atlantic cod in eastern Canada. The DUs assessed by COSEWIC are each comprised of several DFO management units:

• Northern cod: 2GH, 2J3KL, 3NO
• Northern Laurentian: 4RS, 3Ps
• Southern Laurentian: 4TVn, 4VN(resident), 4VsW
• Southern Canada: 4X5Y, 5Zjm

Subsequent to this COSEWIC assessment, DFO must undertake a Recovery Potential Assessment for each DU assessed as threatened or endangered to assist in the evaluation of recovery potential, to support DFO recommendation for a listing decision, and to support the development of a recovery plan.

In addition, DFO Ecosystem and Fisheries Management Branch has requested that reference points that are consistent with the Precautionary Approach be developed for the cod management units in eastern Canada and that the projections of abundance of Atlantic cod in the RPA be evaluated relative to these limit reference points. A review of methods for defining reference points for Atlantic cod was conducted in 2002. Reference points have been defined for 4TVn and for 4RS Atlantic cod in eastern Canada (DFO 2002; Duplisea and Fréchet 2009).

To support the analyses to be conducted in the RPA of the southern Laurentian and the southern Canada DUs and to develop the management scenarios, a number of modelling and analysis questions should be resolved. These issues include:

• peer review of alternate assessment models of abundance
• peer review of approaches for conducting medium-term (3 generations) projections of population abundance and grouping for projections of DU, and
• peer review of approaches and development of limit reference points.

Objectives

The peer review meeting will be a framework meeting. The objectives of the meeting are to recommend models and approaches to be used for the RPA. No advisory reports are expected from the meeting since no catch or management advice will be produced. Specifically, the meeting will address the following points:

1. Peer review of updated or alternate assessment models for 4T, 4Vn, and 4VsW Atlantic cod. The most recent peer reviewed assessment models for 4X5Y and 5Zjm will be used for the RPA.
2. Peer review of approaches for conducting medium-term (3 generations) projections of population abundance
• for each stock: 4T, 4Vn, 4VsW, 4X5Y, 5Zjm
• projections for each DU

3. Peer review of approaches and development of limit reference points including:
• Recommendations on defining reference points specific to current versus long-term conditions
• Definition of limit reference points for 4Vn, 4VsW, 4X5Y, 5Zjm (Note: limit reference points have been previously defined for 4T).

Products

A proceedings report will be produced that summarizes the points of discussions and specifically recommends the following:

1. The population assessment model which should be used for the RPA for 4T, 4Vn, and 4VsW
2. How the medium-term projections will be conducted for each stock and for each DU for the RPA
3. An approach(es) to be used, and define the reference points for the following stocks: 4Vn, 4VsW, 4X5Y, 5Zjm.

Participation

The meeting will be highly technical in nature and the discussions and review will require participants that are familiar with a broad range of quantitative assessment and modelling techniques. Since no catch or management advice will be provided, the perspectives and participation from industry, aboriginal communities, and provincial governments are not required. Participation will be by invitation.

References

DFO. 2002. National Workshop on Reference Points for Gadoids, Ottawa, November 5-8, 2002. DFO Can. Sci. Adv. Secr. Proc. Ser. 2002/033.

Duplisea, D. and Fréchet, A. 2010. Precautionary reference point estimates for northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (3Pn4RS) cod (Gadus morhua) and methods for their calculation. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2009/097. iv + 24 p.