Terms of Reference

Assessment of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon and Forecast for 2012

Pacific Regional Science Advisory Process

February 1, 2012
Nanaimo, British Columbia

Chairperson: Gayle Brown

Context

This Regional Advisory Meeting (RAP) will review the 2012 return forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon. Fraser River Sockeye Salmon return forecasts are requested annually by Fisheries and Aquaculture Management (FAM). Forecasts are used for pre-season planning purposes and for in-season management. Forecasts are produced by DFO as agreed to under the Canada-United States Pacific Salmon Treaty.

The 2012 forecast estimates for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon will rely on a framework of methods described and reviewed by CSAP in past forecasts. As a result of changes in stock productivity in recent years, a detailed review of the 2010 Fraser River Sockeye forecast methodology was completed in 2010 (Grant et al. 2010) that considers recent productivity in the Fraser Sockeye forecast process. The 2012 Fraser Sockeye forecasts largely relies on the approaches outlined in this previous paper, but will examine alternate approaches to rank the forecast models instead of the retrospective approach, as recommended in previous CSAS reviews.

Objectives

The objective of this Regional Advisory Process is to provide forecasts of the return of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon stocks in 2012, including estimates of uncertainty. The following CSAP Working Paper will be revewied and form the basis for this advice:

Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2012. B.L. MacDonald & S.C.H. Grant. CSAP Working Paper 2011-P27

Expected Publications

• CSAS Science Advisory Report (1)
• CSAS Research Document (1)
• CSAS Proceedings

Participation

• DFO Science Branch,
• DFO Fisheries Management Branch
• Non-Government Organizations
• First Nations Organizations
• Commercial and Recreational Fishing Interests

References Cited

Grant, S.C.H., Michielsens, C.G.J., Porszt, E.J., and Cass, A. 2010.  Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2010. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2010/042.