Terms of Reference

Assessment of the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (3Pn, 4RS) Cod

Regional Peer Review - Quebec Region

March 8-9, 2012
Mont-Joli, Qc

Chairperson: Bernard Sainte-Marie

Context

The cod fishery has been practiced for many decades in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence. Although the stock is collapsed for over 15 years, landings in recent years have fluctuated between 1500 t and 6500 t. Since 1997, all landings are from fixed gear fisheries (handlines, longlines and gillnets).

The resource is managed mainly by annual TACs (total allowable catches) and a series of other management measures (closing areas during the spawning period, presence of observers, dockside monitoring, minimal size of catches, controlling by-catches, etc) aimed at preserving the reproductive potential of the stock.

The northern Gulf (3Pn, 4RS) cod stock assessment is now done every 2 years to determine whether changes that have occurred in the stock status necessitate adjustments to the conservation approach and management plan.

Objectives

Provide scientific advice to determine the TAC for cod stocks in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (3Pn, 4RS) for 2012 and 2013. The advice shall include:

• Description of the biology of northern Gulf cod and its distribution;
• Description of the directed fisheries and sentinel fisheries including landings and fishing effort;
• Description of cod by-catches in other fisheries
• A review of other potential sources of information concerning fishing activities and complementary to official statistics such as consultations with the industry (Lower North-Shore and Newfoundland - Labrador), a post-season summary compiled by fisheries management, analyses of logbooks (< 45')  and a questionnaire conducted with fishermen;
• An update of abundance index derived from sentinel fisheries with mobile gears (July) and fixed gears (gillnets and longlines);
• Estimation of fishing mortality from the tagging program;
• An analysis of additional stations in the 10-20 fathoms zone since July 2003 mobile-gear sentinel survey;
• An investigation on various formulations of the sequential population analysis (SPA) to derive trends in terms of spawning stock, recruitment and fishing mortality. This analysis will include an estimation of the uncertainties associated with the assessment, specifically associated to spawning stock biomass and fishing mortality.
• An update on biological indicators related to the condition, growth and maturity;
• An update of trends of a number of indicators relevant to abundance, productivity, fishing mortality and environment;
• An examination of the impact of the 2011 oceanographic conditions on cod;
• An examination of annual trends of the summer spatial distribution of cod along the coast based on sentinel fixed gear catch rates (longlines and gillnet);
• Identification and prioritization of research projects to be considered for the future.
• Identification of indicators to follow the stock status during the years without a formal stock assessment and as part of the application of decision rules for the precautionary approach.
• Projections for 2012 and 2013 based on the assessment of trends in the abundance index and other stock indicators as well as on risk analyses to provide an advice for the establishment of TAC for cod stocks in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (3Pn, 4RS). Specifically, these analyses will include:
  • An assessment of the trends in the stock and in the risks compared to baseline conservation thresholds (critical biomass). This assessment will address the results of projections on the basis of these critical biomasses and of the average mature biomass, including the probabilities of reaching these levels on a medium term period by considering factors such as recruitment and stock productivity;
  • If possible, apply the decision rules to the most recent data if these rules are accepted and ended.

Expected Publications

• CSAS Science Advisory Report on northern Gulf cod.
• CSAS Research document
• CSAS Proceedings summarizing discussions.

Participation

• DFO Science and Fisheries Management
• Fishing industry
• Provincial representatives
• Aboriginal Communities / Organizations