Terms of Reference

Recovery Potential Assessment of Northern Madtom (Noturus stigmosus)

Regional Peer Review Meeting – Central and Arctic Region

March 19, 2012
WebEx / Teleconference

Chairperson: Nicholas E. Mandrak

Context

When the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) designates aquatic species as threatened or endangered, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO), as the responsible jurisdiction under the Species at Risk Act (SARA), is required to undertake a number of actions. Many of these actions require scientific information on the current status of the species, population or designable unit (DU), threats to its survival and recovery, and the feasibility of its recovery. Formulation of this scientific advice has typically been developed through a Recovery Potential Assessment (RPA) that is conducted shortly after the COSEWIC assessment. This timing allows for the consideration of peer-reviewed scientific analyses into SARA processes including recovery planning.

The Northern Madtom is currently assessed, and listed as, Endangered by COSEWIC and SARA, respectively. An update status report and subsequent assessment is currently being undertaken by COSEWIC. A recovery strategy for this species will be posted to the Environmental Registry imminently. The recovery potential analysis will support the update status report, recovery strategy, permitting, and identification of critical habitat.

In support of listing recommendations for this Northern Madtom by the Minister, DFO Science has been asked to undertake an RPA, based on the National Frameworks (DFO 2007a and b). The advice in the RPA may be used to inform both scientific and socio-economic elements of the listing decision, as well as development of a recovery strategy and action plan, and to support decision-making with regards to the issuance of permits, agreements and related conditions, as per section 73, 74, 75, 77 and 78 of SARA. The advice generated via this process will also update and/or consolidate any existing advice regarding this species.

Objectives

To assess the recovery potential of Northern Madtom.

Assess current/recent species/status

Evaluate present status for abundance and range and number of populations.
Evaluate recent species trajectory for abundance (i.e., numbers and biomass focusing on mature individuals) and range and number of populations.
Estimate, to the extent that information allows, the current or recent life-history parameters (total mortality, natural mortality, fecundity, maturity, recruitment, etc.) or reasonable surrogates; and associated uncertainties for all parameters.
Estimate expected population and distribution targets for recovery, according to DFO guidelines (DFO 2005, and 2011).
Project expected population trajectories over three generations (or other biologically reasonable time), and trajectories over time to the recovery target (if possible to achieve), given current parameters for population dynamics and associated uncertainties using DFO guidelines on long-term projections (Shelton et al. 2007).
Evaluate residence requirements for the species, if any.

Assess the Habitat Use

Provide functional descriptions (as defined in DFO 2007b) of the required properties of the aquatic habitat for successful completion of all life-history stages.
Provide information on the spatial extent of the areas that are likely to have these habitat properties.
Identify the activities most likely to threaten the habitat properties that give the sites their value, and provide information on the extent and consequences of these activities.
Quantify how the biological function(s) that specific habitat feature(s) provide to the species varies with the state or amount of the habitat, including carrying capacity limits, if any.
Quantify the presence and extent of spatial configuration constraints, if any, such as connectivity, barriers to access, etc.
Provide advice on how much habitat of various qualities / properties exists at present.
Provide advice on the degree to which supply of suitable habitat meets the demands of the species both at present, and when the species reaches biologically based recovery targets for abundance and range and number of populations.
Provide advice on feasibility of restoring habitat to higher values, if supply may not meet demand by the time recovery targets would be reached, in the context of all available options for achieving recovery targets for population size and range.
Provide advice on risks associated with habitat “allocation” decisions, if any options would be available at the time when specific areas are designated as critical habitat.
Provide advice on the extent to which various threats can alter the quality and/or quantity of habitat that is available.

Scope for Management to Facilitate Recovery

Assess the probability that the recovery targets can be achieved under current rates of parameters for population dynamics, and how that probability would vary with different mortality (especially lower) and productivity (especially higher) parameters.
Quantify to the extent possible the magnitude of each major potential source of mortality identified in the pre-COSEWIC assessment, the COSEWIC Status Report, information from DFO sectors, and other sources.
Quantify to the extent possible the likelihood that the current quantity and quality of habitat is sufficient to allow population increase, and would be sufficient to support a population that has reached its recovery targets.
Assess to the extent possible the magnitude by which current threats to habitats have reduced habitat quantity and quality.

Scenarios for Mitigation and Alternative to Activities

Using input from all DFO sectors and other sources as appropriate, develop an inventory of all feasible measures to minimize/mitigate the impacts of activities that are threats to the species and its habitat (steps 18 and 20).
Using input from all DFO sectors and other sources as appropriate, develop an inventory of all reasonable alternatives to the activities that are threats to the species and its habitat (steps 18 and 20).
Using input from all DFO sectors and other sources as appropriate, develop an inventory of activities that could increase the productivity or survivorship parameters (steps 3 and 17).
Estimate, to the extent possible, the reduction in mortality rate expected by each of the mitigation measures in step 21 or alternatives in step 22 and the increase in productivity or survivorship associated with each measure in step 23.
Project expected population trajectory (and uncertainties) over three generations (or other biologically reasonable time), and to the time of reaching recovery targets when recovery is feasible; given mortality rates and productivities associated with specific scenarios identified for exploration (as above). Include scenarios which provide as high a probability of survivorship and recovery as possible for biologically realistic parameter values.
Recommend parameter values for population productivity and starting mortality rates, and where necessary, specialized features of population models that would be required to allow exploration of additional scenarios as part of the assessment of economic, social, and cultural impacts of listing the species.

Allowable Harm Assessment

Evaluate maximum human-induced mortality which the species can sustain and not jeopardize survival or recovery of the species.

Expected Publications

Science Advisory Report
Proceedings
Research Document(s)

Participation

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (Science, Ecosystems and Fisheries Management, Policy and Economics sectors, Habitat and Species at Risk programs)
Province of Ontario
Academics
Conservation Authorities
Other invited experts