Terms of Reference
Pre-season abundance forecast for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon returns in 2013; and Assessment of mark selective fisheries and enhancement strategies for Strait of Georgia Coho Salmon
Regional Peer Review – Pacific Region
November 13-15, 2012
Nanaimo, British Columbia
Chairpersons: Michael Folkes
This Regional Peer Review (RPR) meeting will review two working papers related to Pacific Salmon. The context and objectives for each review are outlined below.
Pre-season abundance forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink salmon returns in 2013
Context
This Regional Peer Review (RPR) Meeting will review the 2013 return forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon. Fraser River Sockeye Salmon return forecasts are requested annually and Fraser Pink Salmon are requested bi-annually by Fisheries Management and used for pre-season planning purposes and for in-season management. The provision of Fraser River Sockeye and Pink forecasts is a commitment of Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) under the Canada-United States Pacific Salmon Treaty.
The 2013 Fraser River Sockeye Salmon and Pink forecasts largely rely on the approaches outlined in the most recent Fraser River Sockeye Salmon forecast research documents (Grant et al, 2010, Grant and MacDonald 2011, and MacDonald and Grant, 2012).
Objectives
The following working paper will be reviewed to provide Science advice respecting the individual return abundance forecasts for 19 Fraser River Sockeye Salmon stocks and the Fraser Pink stock, with stock-recruitment data, and a number of Sockeye miscellaneous stocks for which only escapement data is available.
Pre-season forecast for Fraser River Sockeye (Onchorhynchus nerka) and Pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) returns in 2013 by S. Grant & B. MacDonald, CSAP Working Paper 2013.
The advice provided should include:
- Estimates of uncertainty presented as probability distributions;
- Comparisons of forecast distributions placed in the context of historical productivity for each stock; and,
- Consideration of marine environmental conditions in 2011.
Assessment of mark selective fisheries and enhancement strategies for Strait of Georgia Coho Salmon
Context
The hatchery mark selective Coho Salmon fishery was initiated in 2002 as a means of maintaining recreational harvest opportunities while conserving wild Coho Salmon. All Coho Salmon smolts released from Southern Georgia Strait hatcheries were marked and a new fishery and escapement sampling regime at specific hatchery locations, requiring significant infrastructure investment, was established to maintain the integrity of stock assessment data. Marked Strait of Georgia Coho Salmon and marked Coho Salmon from other facilities also support other mark selective fisheries in the South Coast.
This initiative has not been evaluated and the status of wild Coho Salmon populations remains low. Management measures are varied, the quality of assessment data is inconsistent, and the encounter rate of marked fish is low. In addition, there are concerns about carrying capacity in the Strait of Georgia and program resource issues. There is also an interest in manipulating the number of hatchery Coho Salmon marked and released from enhancement facilities, particularly in the Strait of Georgia. However, it is not possible to proceed with such adjustments without understanding the impacts of potential changes on the fishery, particularly on encounter rates, and biological risks to wild Coho Salmon populations. This assessment will assist with implementation of the Wild Salmon Policy by providing information that may inform the assessment of the status of Coho Salmon, inform fishery management measures and inform the design of hatchery production and marking strategies consistent with ecosystem capacity.
Objectives
The following working paper will be reviewed to provide Science advice respecting the objectives outlined below:
Assessment of mark selective fisheries and enhancement strategies for Strait of Georgia Coho Salmon. Sawada, J. CSAP Working Paper 2012/P17
- Evaluate whether the Strait of Georgia hatchery mark selective Coho Salmon fishery program meeting its objective to reduce exploitation rates on wild Coho Salmon populations;
- Evaluate whether the Strait of Georgia hatchery mark selective Coho Salmon fishery program is meeting its objective of maintaining or increasing harvest opportunities for marked Coho Salmon;
- Consider whether current hatchery Coho Salmon production levels have negatively affected the Strait of Georgia ecosystem; and,
- Based on the conclusions of the preceding three questions, provide advice regarding optimal future production and release strategies for enhancement facilities to meet both harvest and conservation objectives.
The analysis would involve an analysis of both US and Canadian data and documents as well as materials produced by the PST Selective Mark Fishery Evaluation Committee. The analysis will only consider the Strait of Georgia mark selective Coho Salmon fishery.
Expected publications
- CSAS Research Documents (3)
- CSAS Science Advisory Reports (2)
- CSAS Proceedings
Participation
- DFO Science
- DFO Fisheries Management
- Province of BC
- Pacific Salmon Commission
- First Nations
- Commercial and recreational fishing interests
- Environmental non-government organizations
References
Notice
Participation to CSAS peer review meetings is by invitation only.
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