Terms of Reference

Risk-based Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Risks on the Biological Systems and Infrastructure within Fisheries and Oceans Canada's Mandate

Science Special Response Process (SSRP) – National Capital Region

Arctic Basin
October 15-17, 2012
Winnipeg, Manitoba
Co-chairs: Gilles Olivier and Joclyn Paulic

Atlantic Basin
November 6-7, 2012
St. John’s, Newfoundland
Co-chairs: Gilles Olivier and Paul Lyon

Freshwater Basin
November 20-22, 2012
Winnipeg, Manitoba
Co-chairs: Gilles Olivier and Gavin Christie

Pacific Basin
November 28-29, 2012
Nanaimo, British Columbia
Co-chairs: Gilles Olivier, other co-chair to be determined

Context

As part of a broader federal strategy, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) received funding for the Aquatic Climate Change Adaptation Service Program (ACCASP; 2011-2016) in order to integrate climate change considerations into the mainstream of decision-making for the delivery of departmental programs and policies. The ACCASP will assess regional risks, to enable front-line managers to respond to climate change. The program will also foster the development of applied science-based tools and research projects to increase the understanding of the impacts of climate change, and to enable adaptation in support of the Department’s strategic outcomes.

One of the program’s primary objectives is to assess the risks that climate change poses to the delivery of DFO’s mandate in four Large Aquatic Basins (LABs).

As a first step towards this objective, the risks to the biological systems and infrastructure that fall under the purview of DFO must be assessed. Each basin assessment will be based on documents that respectively describe climatic “Trends and Projections” based on two separate temporal scales, and the “Impact, Opportunities and Vulnerabilities” evaluation for each temporal scale. Two foundational Fisheries and Oceans climate change national risk assessment reports (Interis 2005^{Footnote 1}, 2012^{Footnote 2}) provide a preliminary assessment of the impacts of climate change to the department’s strategic priorities, and are the cornerstones of the four LAB assessments.

The results of this science-based assessment will be combined with those of the concurrent socio-economical, and policy analyses, in an integrated risk assessment workshop to determine DFO’s most important basin-level climate risks. This advice will inform senior management as they develop policies that will increase the Department’s adaptive capabilities to future climate change. It will also be instrumental in setting priorities for the ACCASP Science-funded programs on understanding climate change impacts and adaptation tools development for 2013-14.

A four part national Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat (CSAS) Science Special Response Process (SSRP) will be held to provide science advice on the risks to the biological systems and infrastructure that fall under the purview of DFO. This process will consist of four peer-review meetings, one in each of the LABs, and will be held in: Winnipeg on October 15-17, 2012 (Arctic LAB); Nanaimo on October 30-31, 2012 (Pacific LAB); St. John’s on November 6-7, 2012 (Atlantic LAB); Winnipeg on November 20-22, 2012 (Freshwater LAB).

Working papers

There will be one (1) working paper (WP) for each of the LAB meetings (4 in total). This WP will contain, at a minimum, a risk summary sheet for each significant risk which has been identified. Within the summary sheets, the main risk drivers and potential consequences (Threats and Opportunities), as a consequence of the trends and projections temporal assessments, will be detailed. These summary sheets will follow DFO’s Integrated Risk Management Risk model.

Objectives

The primary objective of this science advisory process is to identify the key climate change related risks to the biological systems and infrastructure that fall under the purview of DFO in each of the four basins being assessed.

In order to achieve this, meeting participants will be asked to fulfill the following objectives:

1. Review Risk Summary Sheets
   1. Determine if the risks are relevant and appropriately defined based on the main risk drivers;
   2. Review the main risk drivers, and identify new risk drivers;
   3. Identify the threats and opportunities to the Department for each risk;
   4. Identify any knowledge/information gaps; and
   5. Determine if new risks should be identified and complete a corresponding summary sheet for each new risk.
      
      
2. Assess the Risks
   1. Evaluate to what degree each risk impedes the delivery of DFO's mandate in the next decade and in 50 years (i.e. risks’ impact and probability).

Expected publications

• Science Response

Participation

For each LAB meeting participants will include:

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science
• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) from Canadian Coast Guard, Canadian Hydrographic Services, Small Craft Harbours or Real Property