Terms of Reference
Recovery Potential Assessment for Atlantic Salmon (Outer Bay of Fundy Designatable Unit)
Regional Peer Review Meeting – Maritimes Region
February 19-22, 2013
Fredericton, New Brunswick
Chairperson: Tana Worcester
Context
When the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) designates aquatic species as threatened or endangered, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO), as the responsible jurisdiction under the Species at Risk Act (SARA), is required to undertake a number of actions. Many of these actions require scientific information on the current status of the species, population or designatable unit (DU), threats to its survival and recovery, and the feasibility of its recovery. Formulation of this scientific advice has typically been developed through a Recovery Potential Assessment (RPA) that is conducted shortly after the COSEWIC assessment. This timing allows for the consideration of peer-reviewed scientific analyses into SARA processes including recovery planning.
The Outer Bay of Fundy DU of Atlantic Salmon was evaluated as Endangered by COSEWIC in November 2010. The rationale for designation is as follows: “This species requires rivers or streams that are generally clear, cool and well-oxygenated for reproduction and the first few years of rearing, but undertakes lengthy feeding migrations in the North Atlantic Ocean as older juveniles and adults. This population breeds in rivers tributary to the New Brunswick side of the Bay of Fundy, from the U.S. border to the Saint John River. Small (one-sea-winter) and large (multi-sea-winter) fish have both declined over the last 3 generations, approximately 57% and 82%, respectively, for a net decline of all mature individuals of about 64%; moreover, these declines represent continuations of greater declines extending far into the past. There is no likelihood of rescue, as neighbouring regions harbour severely depleted, genetically dissimilar populations. The population has historically suffered from dams that have impeded spawning migrations and flooded spawning and rearing habitats, and other human influences, such as pollution and logging, that have reduced or degraded freshwater habitats. Current threats include poor marine survival related to substantial but incompletely understood changes in marine ecosystems, and negative effects of interbreeding or ecological interactions with escaped domestic salmon from fish farms. The rivers used by this population are close to the largest concentration of salmon farms in Atlantic Canada.” There has been no previous RPA for this DU.
In support of listing recommendations for this DU by the Minister, DFO Science has been asked to undertake an RPA, based on the National Frameworks (DFO 2007a and b). The advice in the RPA may be used to inform both scientific and socio-economic elements of the listing decision, as well as development of a recovery strategy and action plan, and to support decision-making with regards to the issuance of permits, agreements and related conditions, as per section 73, 74, 75, 77 and 78 of SARA. The advice generated via this process will also update and/or consolidate any existing advice regarding this DU.
Objectives
- To assess the recovery potential of the Outer Bay of Fundy DU of Atlantic Salmon.
Assess current/recent species/status
- Evaluate present status for abundance and range and number of populations.
- Evaluate recent species trajectory for abundance (i.e., numbers and biomass focusing on mature individuals) and range and number of populations.
- Estimate, to the extent that information allows, the current or recent life-history parameters (total mortality, natural mortality, fecundity, maturity, recruitment, etc.) or reasonable surrogates; and associated uncertainties for all parameters.
- Estimate expected population and distribution targets for recovery, according to DFO guidelines (DFO 2005, and 2011).
- Project expected population trajectories over three generations (or other biologically reasonable time), and trajectories over time to the recovery target (if possible to achieve), given current parameters for population dynamics and associated uncertainties using DFO guidelines on long-term projections (Shelton et al. 2007).
- Evaluate residence requirements for the species, if any.
Assess the Habitat Use
- Provide functional descriptions (as defined in DFO 2007b) of the required properties of the aquatic habitat for successful completion of all life-history stages.
- Provide information on the spatial extent of the areas that are likely to have these habitat properties.
- Identify the activities most likely to threaten the habitat properties that give the sites their value, and provide information on the extent and consequences of these activities.
- Quantify how the biological function(s) that specific habitat feature(s) provide to the species varies with the state or amount of the habitat, including carrying capacity limits, if any.
- Quantify the presence and extent of spatial configuration constraints, if any, such as connectivity, barriers to access, etc.
- Provide advice on how much habitat of various qualities / properties exists at present.
- Provide advice on the degree to which supply of suitable habitat meets the demands of the species both at present, and when the species reaches biologically based recovery targets for abundance and range and number of populations.
- Provide advice on feasibility of restoring habitat to higher values, if supply may not meet demand by the time recovery targets would be reached, in the context of all available options for achieving recovery targets for population size and range.
- Provide advice on risks associated with habitat “allocation” decisions, if any options would be available at the time when specific areas are designated as critical habitat.
- Provide advice on the extent to which various threats can alter the quality and/or quantity of habitat that is available.
Scope for Management to Facilitate Recovery
- Assess the probability that the recovery targets can be achieved under current rates of parameters for population dynamics, and how that probability would vary with different mortality (especially lower) and productivity (especially higher) parameters.
- Quantify to the extent possible the magnitude of each major potential source of mortality identified in the pre-COSEWIC assessment, the COSEWIC Status Report, information from DFO sectors, and other sources.
- Quantify to the extent possible the likelihood that the current quantity and quality of habitat is sufficient to allow population increase, and would be sufficient to support a population that has reached its recovery targets.
- Assess to the extent possible the magnitude by which current threats to habitats have reduced habitat quantity and quality.
Scenarios for Mitigation and Alternative to Activities
- Using input from all DFO sectors and other sources as appropriate, develop an inventory of all feasible measures to minimize/mitigate the impacts of activities that are threats to the species and its habitat (steps 18 and 20).
- Using input from all DFO sectors and other sources as appropriate, develop an inventory of all reasonable alternatives to the activities that are threats to the species and its habitat (steps 18 and 20).
- Using input from all DFO sectors and other sources as appropriate, develop an inventory of activities that could increase the productivity or survivorship parameters (steps 3 and 17).
- Estimate, to the extent possible, the reduction in mortality rate expected by each of the mitigation measures in step 21 or alternatives in step 22 and the increase in productivity or survivorship associated with each measure in step 23.
- Project expected population trajectory (and uncertainties) over three generations (or other biologically reasonable time), and to the time of reaching recovery targets when recovery is feasible; given mortality rates and productivities associated with specific scenarios identified for exploration (as above). Include scenarios which provide as high a probability of survivorship and recovery as possible for biologically realistic parameter values.
- Recommend parameter values for population productivity and starting mortality rates, and where necessary, specialized features of population models that would be required to allow exploration of additional scenarios as part of the assessment of economic, social, and cultural impacts of listing the species.
Allowable Harm Assessment
- Evaluate maximum human-induced mortality which the species can sustain and not jeopardize survival or recovery of the species.
Expected Publications
- Science Advisory Report
- Proceedings
- Research Document
Participation
- DFO Science
- DFO Ecosystem Management, DFO Fisheries and Aquaculture Management, and DFO Policy and Economics
- Parks Canada
- Province of New Brunswick
- Aboriginal communities/organizations
- Fishing and aquaculture industries
- Non-governmental organizations
- Academics
References
COSEWIC. 2010. COSEWIC assessment and status report on the Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar (Nunavik population, Labrador population, Northeast Newfoundland population, South Newfoundland population, Southwest Newfoundland population, Northwest Newfoundland population, Quebec Eastern North Shore population, Quebec Western North Shore population, Anticosti Island population, Inner St. Lawrence population, Lake Ontario population, Gaspé-Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence population, Eastern Cape Breton population, Nova Scotia Southern Upland population, Inner Bay of Fundy population, Outer Bay of Fundy population) in Canada. Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada. Ottawa. xlvii + 136 pp.
Notice
Participation to CSAS peer review meetings is by invitation only.
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