Terms of Reference

Stock Assessment and Management Advice for BC Pacific Herring: 2013 Status and 2014 Forecast

Regional Peer Review – Pacific Region

September 4-6, 2013
Nanaimo, BC

Chairperson: John Holmes

Context

Pacific herring is a pelagic species inhabiting inshore and offshore waters of the North Pacific from California to the Beaufort Sea. Herring annually migrate between feeding and spawning areas. Commercial fishing for British Columbia herring stocks is managed based on five major and two minor stock management areas consisting of Haida Gwaii (Area 2E), Prince Rupert District, Central Coast, Strait of Georgia, and West Coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI). The two minor herring stock management areas are Haida Gwaii Area 2W and WCVI Area 27.

The assessment of current Pacific herring abundance and forecasts have been generated annually since the late-1980s for each of the five major and two minor stocks in British Columbia, with a statistical catch–age-model used coastwide since 2006. The model is fitted to commercial catch, proportions-at-age and fishery-independent survey data (spawn index) to estimate reference points and generate 1-year forecasts of spawning biomass (Martell et al, 2012; DFO 2013).

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Pacific Fisheries Management Branch has requested that DFO Pacific Science Branch assess the status of B.C. herring stocks in 2013 and provide projections of potential herring abundance in 2014 and the consequences of a range of potential harvests to inform the development of the 2014 Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP). In addition, DFO Science Branch has requested that DFO Pacific Science Branch evaluate recruitment forecasting methodologies for B.C. herring stocks. This CSAS Regional Peer Review (RPR) is a scientific review of the assessment and projections undertaken in response to this request.

Objectives

Guided by the DFO Fishery Decision-making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach (DFO 2009) under the Sustainable Fisheries Framework, RPR participants will review the following working papers and provide advice on the objectives listed below:

Stock Assessment and Management Advice for the British Columbia Herring Stocks: 2013 Assessment and 2014 Forecasts – CSAP Working Paper 2013-P46. Jaclyn Cleary, Nathan Taylor, Vivian Haist.

Present trends in herring biomass, depletion, and recruitment for each major and minor stocks;
Assess the current status of Pacific Herring for each of the five major and two minor stocks relative to 25% B0; and,
Evaluate the consequences of different total allowable catch levels against probabilistic metrics to accommodate uncertainty in the advice. Results will be presented in the form of decision tables.

Review of Recruitment Forecasting Methodologies for British Columbia Herring Stocks – CSAP Working Paper 2013-P71. Rob Kronlund and Jennifer Boldt.

Evaluate the existing recruitment forecasting methodologies for validity of sampling and analytical approaches and for consistency with the DFO policy “A fishery decision-making framework incorporating the Precautionary Approach” (DFO 2009) requirement to consider uncertainty in decision making.