Terms of Reference

Pre-season abundance forecast for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon returns in 2014

Regional Science Response Process – Pacific Region

January 31, 2014
Nanaimo, BC

Chairperson: Sue Grant

Context

Pre-season forecasts of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon returns are required annually by Fisheries Management for fishery planning.  The 2014 Fraser River Sockeye Salmon forecasts will use the methodological approaches described in the CSAS Research Documents for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon forecasts by Grant et al. (2010), Grant and MacDonald (2012), Grant and MacDonald (2013), and MacDonald and Grant (2012).  Updated brood year escapement, juvenile abundance, recruitment, and environmental data will be used to develop the forecasts; however, no changes to the previously reviewed forecasting methodology will be undertaken for 2014.

Fisheries Management Branch has requested Science Branch to provide information and advice for January 2014 on the pre-season forecast for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon returns in 2014.  Pre-season abundance forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon are used for planning fisheries and are a Canadian obligation under the Pacific Salmon Treaty.  DFO, the Pacific Salmon Commission, and the Canada-US bilateral Fraser River Panel will be the primary users of this information.

Forecast results will be reported via a Science Response (SR) and will reference the advisory framework for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon forecasts developed through the DFO Science advisory process.

Objectives

Science information and advice will be prepared on the individual return abundance forecasts for 19 Fraser River Sockeye Salmon stocks where stock-recruitment data are available and for miscellaneous stocks where only escapement data are available.  The forecasts will be reported in the Science Response:

Pre-season abundance forecast for Fraser River Sockeye salmon returns in 2014.

The specific objectives of this SR process are to prepare:

• Comparisons of 2010 brood year escapements, juvenile abundances, and forecasts to time series averages;
• 2014 Fraser Sockeye pre-season abundance (return) forecasts presented by stock and run-timing group;
• Forecast uncertainty presented as probability distributions (stochastic uncertainty) and also as alternative model forms used to generate forecasts (structural uncertainty).

Expected Publications

• CSAS Science Response

Participation

• DFO (Science, Fisheries Management)
• Pacific Salmon Commission
• Canada-U.S. Pacific Salmon Treaty-Fraser Panel Technical Committee
• First Nations

References

Grant, S.C.H. and MacDonald, B.L. 2013. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and Pink (O. gorbuscha) salmon in 2013. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2012/145. vi + 42 pp. 

Grant, S.C.H. and MacDonald, B.L. 2012. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon in 2011. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2011/134. vi + 48 pp.

Grant, S.C.H., Michielsens, C.G.J., Porszt, E.J. and Cass, A. 2010. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2010. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2010/042. vi + 125 pp. 

MacDonald, B.L. and Grant, S.C.H. 2012. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2012. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2012/011. v + 64 pp.