Terms of Reference

Supplement to the pre-season abundance forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon returns in 2014

Regional Science Response Process – Pacific Region

January 2014
Nanaimo, BC

Chairperson: Sue Grant

Context

Pre-season forecasts of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon returns are required annually by Fisheries Management to assist fishery planning.  The information necessary to support the 2014 forecasts includes data on fish numbers, condition and/or survival (adult returns for each brood year and their juvenile offspring).  These data are collected from research programs in both the freshwater (adult spawners, egg stages, juvenile lake rearing environment and downstream migration) and marine ecosystems (Strait of Georgia and coastal North-East Pacific).

Return forecasts for a number of Fraser River Salmon Stocks in 2014 are expected to be highly uncertain because the exceptionally high 2010 brood year escapements fall outside the range of previously observed stock-recruitment data.  In order to provide context for the forecasts, information will be summarized on the condition and numbers of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon observed at various life-history stages (e.g., adult spawners, egg stages, and juveniles in the freshwater and marine ecosystems).  Summaries will be focused on those stocks that experienced exceptional escapement in 2010 and are expected to contribute the largest proportions to total returns in 2014 (e.g. Shuswap and Chilko stocks).

Science Branch has requested this information to support and supplement the 2014 pre-season abundance forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon.  Pre-season abundance forecasts are used for planning fisheries and are a Canadian obligation under the Pacific Salmon Treaty.  DFO, the Pacific Salmon Commission, and the Canada-US bilateral Fraser River Panel will be the primary users of this Science Response (SR).

Results will be reported via a SR and will serve as background information for subsequent advisory processes on this issue.

Objectives

Data on fish numbers and condition will be summarized for the Fraser River Sockeye Salmon 2010 brood year throughout their life-history.  Given their exceptional brood year escapements in 2010, the Shuswap stocks (Late Shuswap, and early timed Scotch and Seymour stocks) and Chilko River Sockeye stock will receive particular emphasis.  Additional information on other stocks will be provided as needed to highlight fish numbers or condition.  Results will be reported in the Science Response:

Supplement to the pre-season abundance forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon returns in 2014.

Specific objectives for this SR process are to summarize information on:

1. Escapement, fish condition, and environmental conditions in 2010;
2. Juvenile abundance and condition in the freshwater environment;
3. Juvenile abundance and condition in the marine environment;
4. Returns of three year old fish in 2013 (jacks and 3sub1 fish);
5. Comparison of the information from the 2010 brood year with previous years’ data, including data from the 2010 cycle line;
6. Uncertainty in the information presented.

The results of this SR process will inform the preparation of 2014 return forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon following the methods of Grant and MacDonald (2013), MacDonald and Grant (2012), Grant and MacDonald (2012), and Grant et al. (2010).

Expected publications

• CSAS Science Response

Participation

• DFO (Science, Fisheries Management)

References Cited

Grant, S.C.H. and MacDonald, B.L. 2013. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and Pink (O. gorbuscha) salmon in 2013. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2012/145. vi + 42 pp.

Grant, S.C.H. and MacDonald, B.L. 2012. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon in 2011. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2011/134. vi + 48 pp.

Grant, S.C.H., Michielsens, C.G.J., Porszt, E.J. and Cass, A. 2010. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2010.  DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2010/042. vi + 125 pp.

MacDonald, B.L. and Grant, S.C.H. 2012. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2012. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2012/011. v + 64 pp.