Terms of Reference

Pre-season abundance forecast for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon returns in 2015

Regional Science Response Process – Pacific Region

November 25, 2014
Nanaimo, BC

Chairperson: Sue Grant

Context

Pre-season forecasts of Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon returns are required, respectively, annually and in odd years by Fisheries Management for fishery planning. The 2015 Fraser River Sockeye Salmon and Pink forecasts will use the methodological approaches described in the CSAS Research Documents for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon forecasts by Grant et al. (2010), Grant and MacDonald (2011), Grant and MacDonald (2012), and MacDonald and Grant (2012). Last year’s 2014 forecast are available on-line (DFO 2014a and 2014b). Updated brood year escapement, juvenile abundance, recruitment, and environmental data will be used to develop the forecasts; however, no changes to the previously reviewed forecasting methodology will be undertaken for 2015.

Fisheries Management Branch has requested Science Branch to provide information and advice for January 2015 on the pre-season forecast for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon returns in 2015. Pre-season abundance forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon are used for planning fisheries and are a Canadian obligation under the Pacific Salmon Treaty. DFO, the Pacific Salmon Commission, and the Canada-US bilateral Fraser River Panel will be the primary users of this information.

Forecast results will be reported via a Science Response (SR) and will reference the advisory framework for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon forecasts developed through the DFO Science advisory process.

Objectives

Science information and advice will be prepared on the individual return abundance forecasts for 19 Fraser River Sockeye Salmon stocks where stock-recruitment data are available and for miscellaneous stocks where only escapement data are available.  The forecasts will be reported in the Science Response:
Pre-season abundance forecast for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon returns in 2015.
The specific objectives of this SR process are to prepare:

Pre-season abundance forecast for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon returns in 2015.

The specific objectives of this SR process are to prepare:

1. Comparisons of 2011 brood year escapements, juvenile abundances, and forecasts to time series averages;
2. 2015 Fraser Sockeye and Pink pre-season abundance (return) forecasts presented by stock and run-timing group; and,
3. Forecast uncertainty presented as probability distributions (stochastic uncertainty) and also as alternative model forms used to generate forecasts (structural uncertainty).

Expected Publications

• CSAS Science Response

Participation

• DFO (Science, Fisheries Management)
• Pacific Salmon Commission
• Canada-U.S. Pacific Salmon Treaty-Fraser Panel Technical Committee
• First Nations

References

DFO. 2014a. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) Salmon in 2014. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2014/040.

DFO. 2014b. Supplement to the pre-season return forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon in 2014. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2014/041. 57 p.

Grant, S.C.H. and MacDonald, B.L. 2012. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and Pink (O. gorbuscha) salmon in 2013. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2013/145. vi + 42 p.

MacDonald, B.L. and Grant, S.C.H. 2012. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2012. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2012/011. v + 64 p.

Grant, S.C.H. and MacDonald, B.L. 2011. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon in 2011. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2011/134. vi + 48 p.

Grant, S.C.H., Michielsens, C.G.J., Porszt, E.J. and Cass, A. 2010. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2010. Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2010/042. vi + 125 p.