Terms of Reference

Pre-season abundance forecast for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon returns in 2016

Regional Science Response Process – Pacific Region

December 14, 2015
Vancouver, BC

Chairperson: Sue Grant

Context

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Fisheries Management has requested Science Branch to provide information and advice for February 2016 on the pre-season forecast for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon returns in 2016. Pre-season abundance forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon are used for planning fisheries and are a Canadian obligation under the Pacific Salmon Treaty. DFO, the Pacific Salmon Commission, and the Canada-US bilateral Fraser River Panel will be the primary users of this information.

The 2016 Fraser River Sockeye Salmon forecasts will use the methodological approaches described in the CSAS Research Documents for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon forecasts by Grant et al. (2010), Grant and MacDonald (2011), Grant and MacDonald (2012), and MacDonald and Grant (2012). Updated brood year escapements, juvenile abundances, recruitment, and environmental data will be used to develop the forecasts.

Forecast results will be reported via a Science Response (SR) and will reference the advisory framework for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon forecasts developed through the DFO Science advisory process.

Objectives

Science information and advice will be prepared on the individual return abundance forecasts for 19 Fraser River Sockeye Salmon stocks, where stock-recruitment data are available, and for miscellaneous stocks where only escapement data are available.  The forecasts will be reported in the Science Response:

DFO 2016. Pre-season abundance forecast for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon returns in 2016. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2016/nnn.

The specific objectives of this SR process are to prepare:

1. Comparisons of 2012 and 2011 brood year escapements (2012 and 2013 for Harrison Sockeye), juvenile abundances, and forecasts to time series averages;
2. 2016 Fraser Sockeye Salmon pre-season abundance (return) forecasts presented by stock and run-timing group; and,
3. Forecast uncertainty presented as probability distributions (stochastic uncertainty) and also as alternative model forms used to generate forecasts (structural uncertainty).

Expected Publication

• CSAS Science Response

Expected Participation

• DFO (Science, Fisheries Management)
• Pacific Salmon Commission
• Canada-U.S. Pacific Salmon Treaty-Fraser Panel Technical Committee
• First Nations

References

DFO 2015a. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and Pink (O. gorbuscha) Salmon in 2015. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2015/014.

DFO 2015b. Supplement to the pre-season return forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon in 2014. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2015/028.

DFO. 2014a. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) Salmon in 2014. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2014/040.

DFO. 2014b. Supplement to the pre-season return forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon in 2014. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2014/041.

Grant, S.C.H. and MacDonald, B.L. 2012. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and Pink (O. gorbuscha) salmon in 2013. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2012/145. vi + 42 p.

MacDonald, B.L. and Grant, S.C.H. 2012. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2012. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2012/011. v + 64 p.

Grant, S.C.H. and MacDonald, B.L. 2011. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon in 2011. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2011/134. vi + 48 p.

Grant, S.C.H., Michielsens, C.G.J., Porszt, E.J. and Cass, A. 2010. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2010. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2010/042. vi + 125 p.