Terms of Reference

Assessment of stock status of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) from the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO Div. 4T) to 2015 and advice for the 2016 and 2017 fisheries

Regional Science Peer Review – Gulf Region

March 15 and 16, 2016 Moncton,
New Brunswick

Chairperson: Gérald Chaput (DFO Gulf Region)

Context

The assessment of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL; NAFO Div. 4T) is conducted on a two-year cycle. The most recent peer review meeting of the assessment of Atlantic herring in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence was conducted in March 2014 to provide advice for the 2014 and 2015 fisheries (DFO 2014; LeBlanc et al. 2015). The peer review of March 2014 identified issues with the indices of abundance from the gillnet fisheries and the assessment models for the fall spawning component. A framework review of the assessment approach for the fall spawning component was conducted in April 2015 to address the identified shortcomings and to review alternative model formulations. Updated catch advice for the 2015 fishery of the fall spawner component was developed based on the recommendations from the framework review (DFO 2015). Advice for the spring spawning component of Atlantic herring for the 2015 fishery was provided in DFO (2014) and remained valid.

In support of a request for science advice from DFO Fisheries and Aquaculture Management, DFO Gulf Science Branch will review the status to 2015 of the spring and fall spawning components of the Atlantic herring stock of the of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, NAFO Division 4T and provide advice for the 2016 and 2017 fisheries.

Objectives

Assessment of the status of the spring and fall spawning components of Atlantic herring of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO Div. 4T) including:

• Information on catches to the end of 2015, including best estimates of total removals by all fisheries.
• Key indicators of stock status and trends (commercial catch rates, acoustic survey indices, size and/or age composition, etc.).
• Evaluation of the appropriateness and results of the population model(s) for spring and fall spawning components including models that provide estimates of abundance of fall spawners for three geographic areas (north, central, south) of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence.
• Review of reference points in the context of revised population models for both spring and fall spawner components.
• Where possible, a quantitative risk analysis of catch options relative to the probability of meeting defined management objectives for these stocks for 2016 and 2017:
  • For limit and upper stock reference points
  • For F0.1 for the fall spawning component
  • For an increase in biomass of the spring spawning component
• Projections of the number of years for the spring biomass to be above the upper stock reference point at annual catch levels of 1,500, 2,000 and 2,500 t.

Expected Publications

• Science Advisory Report
• Research Document(s)
• Proceedings

Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (Science Branch and Ecosystems and Fisheries Management)
• Invited external experts
• Provincial governments
• Fishing industry
• Aboriginal organizations

References

DFO. 2014. Assessment of Atlantic herring in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO Div. 4T) to 2013. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2014/040.

DFO. 2015. Updated assessment to 2014 of the fall spawning component of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO Div. 4T) and advice for the 2015 fishery. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2015/033.

LeBlanc, C.H., Mallet, A., Surette, T., and Swain, D. 2015. Assessment of the NAFO Division 4T southern Gulf of St. Lawrence herring stocks in 2013. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2015/025. vi + 133 p.