Terms of Reference

Stock Assessment of Northern Cod (Divs. 2J3KL)

Regional Peer Review Process - Newfoundland and Labrador Region

March 21–24 and March 30-31, 2016
St. John’s, NL

Chairperson: Ben Davis

Context

The status of Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Divisions 2J3KL Atlantic Cod (i.e., Northern cod) was last fully assessed in March 2013 (DFO 2013). An update was completed in 2014 (DFO 2014) and 2015 (DFO 2015).  In November 2010 a limit reference point, as described in the decision-making framework developed by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) for the application of precaution in the fishery, was determined (DFO 2011). A Regional Peer Review Process was held November 30 - December 4, 2015 to review multiple models of population dynamics, and to discuss the utility of various data sets available for assessing this stock (DFO Proceedings in preparation).  A stock assessment, in accordance with the Sustainable Fisheries Framework, is requested by Fisheries Management to provide the Minister with advice on the status of the stock covering the period 1 April 2016 - 31 March 2019.

Objectives

• Provide an ecosystem overview (e.g., physical and biological oceanography, predators, prey) for the stock. If possible, this information should be integrated into the advice.
• Provide an assessment of the current status of cod in Divs. 2J3KL using information updated to 2016.
• Assess the current spawning stock biomass (SSB) relative to the Limit Reference Point (B_lim), total biomass, strength of year-classes entering the exploitable population in the next 1 to 3 years, exploitation rate, fishing and natural mortality, distribution, and other relevant biological characteristics.
• Identify the major sources of uncertainty, where applicable.
• Identify the maximum level of annual removals that will enable a 50% growth in SSB over 2016-2020 years with a high probability of success (>75%).
• DFO’s Precautionary Approach (PA) framework indicates there is zero tolerance for preventable decline. Identify the level of removals that provide a very high probability (>95%) of continued stock growth over 2016-2018.
• Identify indicators to follow the stock status during the years without a full stock assessment, and identify events that would trigger an earlier-than-scheduled full assessment.
• 3 year management advice is requested covering the period 1 April 2016 - 31 March 2019.

Expected Publications

• Science Advisory Report
• Proceedings
• Research Document

Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science and Fisheries Management
• Province of Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Fisheries and Aquaculture
• Non-Governmental Organizations
• Industry Representatives
• Academia
• Aboriginal Groups
• Other invited experts

References

DFO. 2011. Proceedings of the Newfoundland and Labrador Regional Atlantic Cod Framework Meeting: Reference Points and Projection Methods for Newfoundland cod stocks; November 22-26, 2010. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Proceed. Ser. 2010/053.

DFO. 2013. Stock Assessment of Northern (2J3KL) Cod in 2013. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2013/014.

DFO. 2014. Northern (2J3KL) Cod Stock Update. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2014/030.

DFO. 2015. Northern (NAFO Divs. 2J3KL) Cod Stock Update. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2015/018.