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National Marine Mammal Peer Review Committee (NMMPRC) 2016 Annual Meeting

National Peer Review - National Capital Region

October 17-21, 2016
Winnipeg, Manitoba

Chairperson: Garry Stenson

Context

The National Marine Mammal Peer Review Committee (NMMPRC) holds at least one annual meeting to conduct scientific peer-review of marine mammal issues. The meeting(s) provide the opportunity for collaborative review of scientific results by marine mammal experts from Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO and from other (non-DFO) organizations.  Following NMMPRC peer-review and approval, scientific results are used to provide sound scientific advice for the management and conservation of marine mammals in Canada.

Objective

Specific Terms of Reference for each topic are as follows:

1. Population Viability Analysis of the St. Lawrence Beluga Population
Context:

The St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE) beluga population was listed as Threatened under the Species at Risk Act (SARA) in May 2005.  The Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) re-reviewed the status of SLE beluga in November 2014, recommending a status of Endangered.

Under SARA, a Recovery Strategy (RS) was published in the Species at Risk Public Registry for this population (DFO 2012).  This strategy identified several threats that limit the recovery of the SLE beluga; these primarily include contaminants, anthropogenic disturbances, and the reduction in quality and quantity of food. The measures proposed in the RS are intended to reduce threats, protect the habitat of SLE beluga, and regularly monitor the population.

Objectives:

The main objective of the project is to conduct an analysis of the viability of the SLE beluga population by quantifying the relative and combined impacts of noise, contaminants, and prey availability on population dynamics. More specifically:

  1. Estimate how the primary threats (contamination, noise, prey availability) affect the population and what proportion of the population is affected.
  2. Proposed management and mitigation measures for the recovery of the population and estimate the possible impacts of these measures.
  3. Use sensitivity analysis and various scenarios to determine the effect of uncertainty and changes in each of these parameters on population response.
  4. Propose future research to increase knowledge of these threats and their impacts.
Expected Publication:
2. Eclipse Sound Narwhal - 2015 ice entrapment Impacts
Context:

In December 2015, an ice entrapment of narwhals was reported in Eclipse Sound, Nunavut.  A humane harvest of the entrapped narwhals took place, although the exact number of animals that died is not known.

The impact of natural mortality, including natural entrapment events, is already included in the intrinsic rate of population growth used to determine sustainable harvest levels.  Following a large narwhal entrapment event in 2008, DFO Science conducted an analysis to assess the possible impacts of the event on the recommended harvest levels for the Eclipse Sound narwhal stock.  Results concluded that if large entrapment events were to become more common, the total allowable landed catch (TALC) may need to be revised to ensure sustainability of the harvest.

Central and Arctic region resource managers have requested science advice on the sustainability of harvest given the latest ice entrapment.

Objectives:

To evaluate the potential impacts of the December 2015 ice entrapment event, and determine if the current total allowable harvest recommendations for narwhal should be revised.

Expected Publications:
3. Baffin Bay Narwhal – Review of a harvest allocation model
Context:

The subsistence harvest of the High Arctic narwhal in Canada is currently managed using Total Allowable Landed Catch (TALC) advice from DFO Science for each of the four summering aggregations of the Baffin Bay populations (Somerset Island, Admiralty Inlet, Eclipse Sound, East Baffin Island) and for summering aggregations of narwhal in Jones Sound and Smith Sound.  These summering stocks, as well as the stocks from Greenland, potentially mix together during annual migrations in spring and fall, to and from their overwintering areas, offshore in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait. 

Inuit hunt narwhals in their summering aggregations, during the migratory periods as they pass by local communities. Narwhal may also be available to Greenland hunters during winter.  The proportion of narwhals belonging to any particular stock in the non-summer harvest period is unknown, but it is assumed to be proportional to the size of each stock relative to the total number of animals in the mixture of stocks.

Recently, the Canada/Greenland Joint Commission on the Management and Conservation of Narwhal and Beluga (JCNB), with the participation of DFO Science, has developed a Narwhal Catch Allocation Model that combines expert opinion, harvest, tracking movement (satellite tagging), and abundance information since 1970 from both Greenland and Canada.  This model explicitly incorporates uncertainty in a Bayesian framework and provides a more complete portrait of population dynamics than is currently available in determining TALC advice for internationally shared stocks in the Baffin Bay narwhal population and informing harvest allocation decisions by Nunavut Inuit communities for their summer and migratory narwhal harvest.

Central and Arctic region resource managers have requested Science advice on using the JCNB model to support sustainable harvest recommendation allocations for Baffin Bay narwhal in Nunavut waters.

Objectives:

To evaluate the robustness of this new model and provide recommendations on its use as an allocation tool for the Baffin Bay Narwhal summering aggregations in Canada.

Expected Publications:
4. Atlantic Walrus flexible quota advice
Context:

The Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP) for walrus in the Nunavut Settlement Area has been presented to the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board (NWMB) for approval. The IFMP includes new harvest levels (Total Allowable Harvests, or TAHs) established in 2016.  The NWMB has requested that the Department evaluate options for the carryover of the unused walrus TAH within a Management Unit.

Central and Arctic region resource managers have requested Science advice on the viability of a harvest credit accumulation and/or borrow-back system for unfilled annual Marine Mammal Tags within walrus management units in Nunavut.

Objectives:

The objective of the peer review is to evaluate the following scenarios provided by resource managers with respect to flex quotas:

Once a Total Allowable Harvest (TAH) is established for a walrus stock/Management Unit (MU) in the Nunavut Settlement Area, what form of flex-quota, or carry-over provisions, could be established for use in subsequent harvest seasons? Scenarios should include the following:

Can a form of harvest credit borrowing system be implemented within each of the walrus MU within the Nunavut Settlement Area (NSA) whereby some proportion of the next year's TAH for a given MU is allocated to the current harvest year and the following year's TAH for the MU is discounted by the amount that is borrowed and still be considered sustainable?

Can the 5 year sum of annual TAH for each walrus MU within the NSA be applied as an overall walrus harvest limit that may be prosecuted at any time during this five year consecutive period and still be considered sustainable?

Expected Publications:
5. St. Lawrence Estuary beluga – information relevant to spring, fall, and winter habitat

This topic is postponed to another meeting.

6. Eastern and Western Hudson Bay Beluga - 2015 Aerial Survey Abundance Estimates and Sustainable Harvest Advice
Context:

Belugas are found in summer along the Hudson Bay coast. Western Hudson Bay (WHB) beluga and Eastern Hudson Bay (EHB) beluga are the principle stocks in the mix of beluga harvested by Inuit in Hudson Bay during the summer. In 2004, the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) designated WHB beluga Special Concern and EHB beluga Endangered.

Inuit subsistence harvests of WHB beluga occur in the Kivalliq Region of Nunavut, in the Belcher Islands and in some Hudson Strait communities. There are currently no restrictions on subsistence harvesting of WHB beluga in the Nunavut Settlement Area, however the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board may wish to consider establishment of a Total Allowable Harvest (TAH) in future.

Beluga are also an important food resource for the Inuit in Nunavik, harvesting beluga from the mixture of WHB and EHB beluga as well as other non-identified stocks. Harvesting in Nunavik communities is currently managed under a 3-year management plan developed and implemented by the Nunavik Marine Region Wildlife Board in 2014, which expires in 2016.

Management of beluga relies on the estimation of abundance of summering stocks.  In August 2015, DFO conducted aerial surveys of beluga in WHB and EHB. Updated abundance estimates are needed to ensure that harvests of WHB and EHB belugas remain within sustainable limits.  As a result, resource managers have requested Science advice on the abundance estimates and sustainable harvest recommendations for WHB and EHB beluga.

Objectives:
  1. Review the 2015 aerial survey methods and results for WHB beluga and estimate the stock abundance.
  2. Review the 2015 aerial survey methods and results for EHB beluga and estimate the stock abundance.
  3. Determine sustainable harvest levels for WHB beluga.
  4. Review the population model for EHB beluga and provide advice on sustainable harvest.
    1. Determine the maximum number of beluga from the EHB population that can be harvested while maintaining a 25%, 50%, and 75% chance of population increase over the next ten years, taking into account the season and area of the hunt.
    2. Develop a precautionary approach (PA) framework that could be used in the management of EHB beluga.  Examine the impact of current harvest levels within the framework, recommend a recovery target under the PA, and provide scenarios which include the maximum number of EHB belugas that can be harvested each year and still allow for the population to recover within 25 and 50 years. 
  5. If appropriate and feasible, review population modelling results incorporating WHB beluga survey data.
Expected Publications:
7. Results of 2016 Northwest Atlantic grey seal pup production survey and sustainable harvest advice
Context:

In January 2016, a pup production survey was conducted in the breeding areas of grey seals (Sable Island, Gulf of St. Lawrence, coastal Nova Scotia) in order to provide new estimates of population parameters.  Grey seals are managed under the Objective Based Fisheries Management (OBFM) approach for Atlantic seals, which was implemented in 2003. The current management objective is to maintain an 80% probability (L20) that the population will remain above 70% (N70) of the largest population seen.

The assessment will provide managers with the information required to evaluate the proposed harvest levels and ensure their compliance with the principles and objectives of the Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP) for seals, including compliance with the Precautionary Approach.

Objectives:

Resource Management requests Science to provide an update on the status of this population.  Advice should include information on the status of the overall population, as well as changes in the status of the three herds generally known by sub-areas as Sable Island, Eastern Shore and the Gulf of St. Lawrence.  The following specific questions will also be evaluated:

  1. For the next five years (2017-2021) what would be the maximum sustainable harvest with an 80% confidence of remaining above N70?
  2. What is the risk that the grey seal population will drop below 50% and 70% of Nmax at a total allowable catch of 60,000, 70,000 and 90,000, 100,000, 120,000 150,000 and 200,000 animals with a composition of 30% adults / 70% beaters, and 5% adults / 95% beaters?
  3. If a target population was set at N70 (e.g. 70% of maximum population observed) what would be the total annual removals required to maintain that target over a range of 5 and 10 years? 
  4. Estimate the number of grey seals forging in the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (4T).
Expected Publications:

Additional Expected Publications

In addition to the expected publications listed under each topic, a meeting Proceedings will be produced.

Participation

Participants from the following groups were invited to participate in the meeting:

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