Terms of Reference

Supplement to the pre-season abundance forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon returns in 2017

Science Response – Pacific Region

January 17 and 18, 2017
Vancouver, BC

Chairperson: Sue Grant

Context

Pre-season forecasts of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon returns are required annually by Fisheries Management to assist fishery planning. The information necessary to support the 2017 forecasts includes data on fish numbers, condition and/or survival (adult returns for each brood year and their juvenile offspring). These data are collected from research programs in both the freshwater (adult spawners, egg stages, juvenile lake rearing environment and downstream migration) and marine ecosystems (Strait of Georgia and coastal North-East Pacific).

In order to provide context for the 2017 forecasts, information will be summarized on the condition and numbers of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon observed at various life-history stages (e.g., adult spawners, egg stages, and juveniles in the freshwater and marine ecosystems). Summaries will be focused on larger stocks from the 2013 brood year, and in particular, those from the Summer Run timing group. Chilko is expected to contribute ~50% to the total returns in 2015, and Quesnel, Late Stuart, and Stellako, ~7% each. Harrison River-Type Sockeye are expected to contribute 6%.

In addition, a review of returns in the previous years (2015 and 2016) relative to the science advice provided in the past two year’s supplement (DFO 2015b and DFO 2016b) will be conducted. Similarities in environmental conditions in these previous years and the upcoming return year will be considered.

Science Branch has requested this information to support and supplement the 2017 pre-season abundance forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon. Pre-season abundance forecasts are used for planning fisheries and are a Canadian obligation under the Pacific Salmon Treaty.

Results will be reported via a Science Response (SR) and will serve as background information for Fraser Sockeye forecasts. DFO, the Pacific Salmon Commission, and the Canada-US bilateral Fraser River Panel will be the primary users of this SR.

Objectives

Data on fish numbers and condition will be summarized for the Fraser River Sockeye Salmon 2013 brood year throughout their life-history. Larger contributors to the 2017 expected returns (particularly Chilko, and to a lesser extent Quesnel, Late Stuart, Stellako and Harrison) will be the focus of the supplemental information. Additional information on other stocks will be provided as needed to highlight fish numbers or condition. Results will be reported in the Science Response:

• Supplement to the pre-season abundance forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon returns in 2017

Specific objectives for this SR process are to summarize information on:

1. Review past two year’s supplement papers with actual returns to provide insight into 2017 returns;
2. Escapement, fish condition, and environmental conditions in 2013;
3. Juvenile abundance and condition in the freshwater environment;
4. Juvenile abundance and condition in the marine environment;
5. Returns of three year old fish in 2016 (jacks and 3sub1 fish);
6. Uncertainty in the information presented.

The results of this SR process will inform the preparation of 2017 return forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon following the methods of Grant and MacDonald (2012), MacDonald and Grant (2012), Grant and MacDonald (2011), and Grant et al. (2010).

Expected Publication

• CSAS Science Response

Participation

• DFO (Science, Fisheries Management)

References

DFO. 2016a. Pre-Season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2016. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2016/021. (Accessed February 9, 2017)

DFO. 2016b. Supplement to the pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka). DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2016/047. (Accessed February 9, 2017)

DFO 2015a. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and Pink (O. gorbuscha) Salmon in 2015. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2015/014.

DFO 2015b. Supplement to the pre-season return forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon in 2014. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2015/028. (Accessed February 9, 2017)

DFO. 2014a. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) Salmon in 2014. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2014/040. (Accessed February 9, 2017)

DFO. 2014b. Supplement to the pre-season return forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon in 2014. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2014/041. (Accessed February 9, 2017)

Grant, S.C.H. and MacDonald, B.L. 2012. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and Pink (O. gorbuscha) salmon in 2013. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2012/145. vi + 42 p. (Accessed February 9, 2017)

MacDonald, B.L. and Grant, S.C.H. 2012. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2012. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2012/011. v + 64 p. (Accessed February 9, 2017)

Grant, S.C.H. and MacDonald, B.L. 2011. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon in 2011. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2011/134. vi + 48 p. (Accessed February 9, 2017)

Grant, S.C.H., Michielsens, C.G.J., Porszt, E.J. and Cass, A. 2010. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2010. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2010/042. vi + 125 p. (Accessed February 9, 2017)