Terms of Reference

Review of the Assessment Framework for Atlantic mackerel in subareas 3 and 4

Regional Peer Review – Quebec Region

January 18–20, 2017
Mont-Joli, Quebec

Chairperson: Dominique Gascon

Context

In the Maritime Provinces, in Newfoundland and in Quebec (NAFO subareas 3 and 4), over 15,000 commercial fishers participate in the Atlantic mackerel fishery. This fishery takes place mainly inshore using gillnets, jiggers, handlines, seines and traps. The type of gear used varies by region and time of year. Canadian landings of Atlantic mackerel are underestimated because some logbooks from the bait fishery are not filled out, and because direct sales at sea occur in this fishery. In addition, neither catches in the recreational fishery, which occurs during summer months all along the Atlantic coast, nor the discards of small mackerel are recorded. This issue of unrecorded catches has been raised on numerous occasions over the course of previous assessments. Until we can better monitor fisheries data collection, we can take into consideration the uncertainty regarding unrecorded catches using newly developed statistical models.

The abundance of Atlantic mackerel has been assessed until now using a sequential population analysis (SPA). This SPA is calibrated using an abundance index that is calculated based on data from an egg survey that takes place annually in the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence. The last assessment of mackerel in subareas 3 and 4 was conducted in winter 2014. The software that was used for the SPA has become obsolete and no longer works on recent systems. In addition, it could not account for the unrecorded catches.

The Fisheries and Aquaculture Management Branch has requested a scientific advice on Atlantic mackerel in Canadian waters for the 2017 and 2018 fishing seasons. In preparation for this assessment, it is important to develop a new population dynamics model in order to estimate the status of the resource. This statistical catch-age model will need to be able to fully integrate the various sources of uncertainty, including the estimated unrecorded catches, and to allow for the calculation of robust reference points. The goal is to review this new assessment framework for Atlantic mackerel in subareas 3 and 4. The assessment of the Atlantic mackerel stock in subareas 3 and 4 is scheduled for March 2017.

Objectives

• Present the results of an online survey of fishers, and of an analysis of bait needs, in order to estimate an upper limit for undeclared catches used for bait;
• Select models to assess mackerel stock status and productivity in subareas 3 and 4, more specifically the stock size, catch at age composition and fishing mortality:
  • Identify a methodology that will allow us to estimate the unrecorded catch;
  • Assess the performance of models (with and without unrecorded catch) using diagnostics and sensitivity analyses (adjustment to data and residuals, retrospective analyses, sensitivity to main productivity parameters of stock);
• Determine methodology to characterize stock productivity including reference points for fishing mortality and spawning stock biomass and past, current and projected states relative to these points.

Expected publications

• 1 proceedings
• 2 research documents

Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (Science and Fisheries Management sectors)
• NOAA Representatives / National Marine Fisheries Service, USA
• Industry representatives
• Provincial representatives
• Academics
• Aboriginal communities/organizations
• Environmental NGOs