Terms of Reference

Review of Reference Points used in the Precautionary Approach for Northern Shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in Shrimp Fishing Area 6

Regional Science Response Process – Newfoundland and Labrador Region

January 25, 2017
St. John’s, NL

Chairperson: Ben Davis

Context

Shrimp biomass indices in Shrimp Fishing Area (SFA) 6 have declined to the lowest levels in the twenty-year survey time series. Science advice (DFO 2014 and 2016) has indicated that a decline in shrimp production has been associated with a recent warming trend, early timing of the phytoplankton bloom, increasing biomass of predatory fishes and commercial fishing. The fishable biomass index is expected to remain low, or decline further, over the next several years assuming that unfavorable conditions continue as expected.

The current Precautionary Approach (PA) framework for Northern Shrimp in SFA 6 was developed by a working group with industry, management and science participation in 2009 (DFO 2009). The provisional reference points and harvest control rules developed by this working group have been used in assessments since 2010. Given the changes in environmental conditions and the predatory fish communities on the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves, Fisheries and Ecosystems Management requests Science assess risks associated with potential alternative interim reference points on the basis that a maximum harvest rate of 10% will remain in place if the female SSB index declines below the current Limit Reference Point of 82,000 t (the harvest control rule in place now). New data will not available for analysis. An assessment model and subsequent revised PA framework will be explored, and subjected to peer-review, at a framework meeting in 2-3 years.

Objectives

There will be a summary review of existing information on the following:

1. Environmental changes, fish community changes, estimations of consumption, and impact of these on net shrimp production.  
2. Changes in productivity conditions for shrimp, and whether these changes are expected to continue in the short, medium and long terms. This would include the review of available information from surveys and the fishery before 1995.
3. Overview of the role of shrimp as a forage species considering an ecosystem based management approach.

There will be discussion on the following:

4. The applicability of the reference points in place for Northern Shrimp, given recent changes in the ecosystem and environment, and whether there are alternative interim reference points that could be applied.
5. Qualitative descriptions of risks (including uncertainties and limitations) associated with current and potential interim proxy reference points, recognizing that there is no model for this stock.

Expected Publication

• Science Response

Participation

• Science, Newfoundland and Labrador Region and National Capital Region, DFO
• Ecosystems and Oceans Science, National Capital Region, DFO
• Fisheries Management, Newfoundland and Labrador Region, DFO
• Fisheries and Ecosystems Management, National Capital Region, DFO
• Invited experts as needed

References

DFO. 2009. Proceedings of the Precautionary Approach Workshop on Shrimp and Prawn Stocks and Fisheries; November 26-27, 2008. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Proceed. Ser. 2008/031.

DFO. 2014. Short-term Stock Prospects for cod, crab, and shrimp in the Newfoundland and Labrador Region (Divisions 2J3KL). DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2014/049.

DFO. 2016 An Assessment of Northern Shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in Shrimp Fishing Areas 4 - 6  and of Striped Shrimp (Pandalus montagui) in Shrimp Fishing Area 4 in 2015. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2016/028.