Terms of Reference

The 2017 Fraser Sockeye Wild Salmon Policy Integrated Biological Status Re-Assessment

Regional Peer Review Process – Pacific Region

June 6-7, 2017
Nanaimo, British Columbia

Chairperson: Jeffrey Lemieux

Context

The previous Wild Salmon Policy assessment for Fraser River Sockeye was conducted in 2011, and included data up to 2010 escapements (Grant et al. 2011; Grant & Pestal 2012). In the previous assessment, Fraser Sockeye productivity (recruits-per-spawner) experienced declines in the most recent decades. In the last five years, however, productivity has improved for many Fraser Sockeye Conservation Units (CUs) and additional data up to 2015 is now available. Additionally, the previous assessment did not provide abundance benchmarks for cyclic CUs due to analytical challenges associated with the model in use at the time. The five cyclic CU’s where new Larkin-based abundance benchmarks applied included the following: Takla-Trembleur-Early Stuart, Shuswap-ES, Takla-Trembleur-Stuart-S, Quesnel-S, Shuswap Complex-L.

Due to the time that has transpired since the previous assessment, the potential productivity changes for some of the Fraser River Sockeye CUs, updated data available, and a revised method by which to assess cyclic CUs, a re-assessment of Fraser River Sockeye CUs is required.  The re-assessment is needed to provide updated data - up to the 2015 escapements (for both trends and abundance metrics) and 2011 brood year (for stock recruitment models) for CUs where these data are available, and to provide abundance benchmarks for the five cyclic CUs that were evaluated without abundance benchmarks in the previous assessment. DFO Science has requested that Science Branch provide a re-assessment of Fraser Sockeye stock status and a review and recommendation on re-assessment of status integration approaches going forward.

Standardized data summaries will be updated for each CU as presented in the previous assessment (Appendix 1: Grant & Pestal 2012). New benchmarks will be provided for the five cyclic CUs with stock-recruitment data based on the delayed-density dependence between cycle lines. The information from the updated data summaries will be used to develop integrated statuses for the 24 Fraser Sockeye CUs. Lessons learned from the previous Fraser Sockeye integration process, and the subsequent Southern British Columbia Chinook and Interior Fraser Coho integration processes, will be used to develop this current re-assessment of status integration. The first status assessments for a species group will be more comprehensive, and used as a framework for subsequent more streamlined re-assessments.

The assessment, and advice arising from this Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat (CSAS) Regional Peer Review (RPR), will be used to provide a framework for subsequent re-assessments across species groups. The Fraser Sockeye CU integrated status results will inform fisheries management, habitat, and hatchery enhancement work as they feed into the WSP integrated planning process.

Objectives

The following working paper will be reviewed and provide the basis for discussion and advice on the specific objectives outlined below.

• Grant, S.C.H., Holt, C.A., Davis, B., Pestal, G. The 2016 Re-Assessment of the Integrated Biological Status Assessments for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) Under the Wild Salmon Policy. CSAP Working Paper2014SAL11.

The specific objectives of this review are to:

1. Provide advice on the applicability of the Larkin model methodology for determining benchmarks used for cyclic CUs (Takla-Trembleur-EStu, Shuswap-ES, Takla-Trembleur-Stuart-S, Quesnel-S, Shuswap Complex-L).
2. Present updated data summaries for the 24 Fraser Sockeye CU’s, including escapement data up to 2015 and stock-recruitment data up to the 2011 brood year (for CU’s with recruitment data). This includes the inclusion of Larkin benchmarks for each cycle of the five cyclic CUs.
3. Review the presented integrated statuses for the 24 Fraser Sockeye CUs and the associated narratives (descriptions of the information used to assess status) that result from the status integration process, and provide advice regarding their applicability.
4. Provide recommendations for future status re-integration processes across all species.
5. Identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps.

Note: The initial synthesis of information to propose re-assessment statuses will be conducted with a subgroup of subject matter experts. Assessments will be conducted separately by individuals, and then integrated together using similar plenary processes of past assessments in half day meeting prior to the CSAS Regional Peer Review. The pre-vetted re-assessment statuses will subsequently be included in the working paper and subject to broader peer review at the Regional Peer Review meeting. The working paper will capture the areas of common and differing expert judgement across participants through narratives.

Expected Publications

• Science Advisory Report
• Proceedings
• Research Document

Expected Participation

• DFO Science, Fisheries Management, Salmon Enhancement Program
• First nations
• External Reviewers
• Commercial and recreational fishing industry
• Academia

References

Grant, S.C.H. & G. Pestal. 2013. Integrated Biological Status Assessments Under the Wild Salmon Policy Using Standardized Metrics and Expert Judgement: Fraser River Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) Case Studies. Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2012/106. v + 132 p.

Grant, S.C.H., MacDonald, B.L., Cone, T.E., Holt, C.A., Cass, A., Porszt, E.J., Hume, J.M.B., Pon, L.B. 2011. Evaluation of Uncertainty in Fraser Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) Wild Salmon Policy Status using Abundance and Trends in Abundance Metrics. DFO. Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2011/087. viii + 183 p.