Terms of Reference

Pre-season abundance forecast for Fraser River Sockeye returns in 2018

Science Response – Pacific Region

December 15 2017
Vancouver, BC

Chairperson: Sue Grant

Context

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Fisheries Management has requested Science Branch to provide information and advice for February 2018 on the pre-season forecast for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon returns in 2018. Pre-season abundance forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon are used for planning fisheries and are a Canadian obligation under the Pacific Salmon Treaty. DFO, the Pacific Salmon Commission, and the Canada-US bilateral Fraser River Panel will be the primary users of this information.

The 2018 Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon forecasts will use the methodological approaches described in the CSAS Research Documents for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon forecasts by Grant et al. (2010), Grant and MacDonald (2011), Grant and MacDonald (2012), and MacDonald and Grant (2012). Updated brood year escapements, juvenile abundances, recruitment, and environmental data will be used to develop the forecasts.

Forecast results will be reported via a Science Response (SR) and will reference the advisory framework for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon forecasts developed through the DFO Science advisory process.

Objective

Science information and advice will be prepared on the individual return abundance forecasts for 19 Fraser River Sockeye Salmon stocks, where stock-recruitment data are available, and for eight miscellaneous stocks where only escapement data are available. The forecasts will be reported in the Science Response:

DFO 2018. Pre-season abundance forecast for Fraser River Sockeye returns in 2018. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2018.

The specific objectives of this SR process are to prepare:

1. For Fraser Sockeye Salmon stocks, comparisons of 2014 and 2013 brood year escapements (2014 and 2015 for Harrison Sockeye), juvenile abundances, and forecasts to time series averages;
2. 2018 Fraser Sockeye Salmon pre-season abundance (return) forecasts presented by stock and run-timing group; and
3. Forecast uncertainty presented as probability distributions (stochastic uncertainty) and also as alternative model forms used to generate forecasts (structural uncertainty)

Expected Publications

• CSAS Science Response

Expected Participation

• DFO (Science, Fisheries Management)
• Pacific Salmon Commission
• Canada-U.S. Pacific Salmon Treaty-Fraser Panel Technical Committee
• First Nations

References

• DFO 2017. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and Pink (O. gorbuscha) salmon in 2017. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2017/016. 61 p.

  DFO. 2016a. Pre-Season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2016. Can. Sci. Adv. Sec. Sci. Response 2016/021.

  DFO. 2016b. Supplement to the pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka). Can. Sci. Adv. Sec. Proc. 2016/047.

  Grant, S.C.H. and MacDonald, B.L. 2012. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and Pink (O. gorbuscha) salmon in 2013. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2012/145. vi + 42 p.

  MacDonald, B.L. and Grant, S.C.H. 2012. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2012. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2012/011. v + 64 p.

  Grant, S.C.H. and MacDonald, B.L. 2011. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon in 2011. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2011/134. vi + 48 p.

  Grant, S.C.H., Michielsens, C.G.J., Porszt, E.J. and Cass, A. 2010. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2010. Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2010/042. vi + 125 p.